Royal Statistical Society Environmental Statistics Section

The Role of Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Regulation

Wednesday 1st February 2006
11.00am (coffee from 10.30am) to 4.00pm
At the Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX


Environmental policy is set, in regard to both international protocols
(e.g. the Kyoto Convention), directives (e.g. the European Union) and
through national legislation, by politicians and senior civil servants.
Environmental policy is implemented, monitored and decisions made
concerning compliance and effectiveness by regulators (Environment
Agencies). The evidence (knowledge) of the effectiveness of policy is
often incomplete and is subject to an often poorly quantified
uncertainty reflected partly in the fact that European Union
environmental policy is based on the precautionary principle, covering
situations where scientific evidence is insufficient, inconclusive or
uncertain.  Evidence-based policy in general and evidence-based
environmental policy in particular is believed to lead to better policy
and better regulation of that policy. This meeting provides an
opportunity to consider the role of evidence, its associated
uncertainties, significance and the precautionary principle in
environmental policy and regulation.

Registration is required for this meeting and will cover the costs of
lunch, coffee and tea. 
Please contact Paul Gentry ([log in to unmask]) or download a booking
form from www.rss.org.uk/diary. 


The meeting will include a brief introduction by Marian Scott
(University of Glasgow), the chair of the Environmental Statistics
Section, on some of the statistical challenges which developing evidence
based environmental policy presents and by Elizabeth Surkovic (Defra)
who will talk about the use of scientific information in development of
environmental policy in the risk management of chemicals.

ELIZABETH FISHER (Tutorial Fellow in Law, Corpus Christi College, and
Faculty of Law, University of Oxford)

Regulating Environmental Risk in an Era of Accountability

This presentation will explore the 'legal' frameworks for risk
assessment/management in UK environmental policy and regulation, what
are the reasons for why those frameworks have developed, and what are
the various features and problems of those frameworks. Understandings of
good risk regulation are influenced not only be understandings of 'good
science' but also by understandings of good administration, which in
themselves are influenced by case law, legislation, policy, internal
management schemes, and Treasury policy.

STEPHEN BUCKLAND and JOHN HARWOOD (University of St Andrews)

Applying the precautionary principle to fisheries and conservation: what
statistics has to offer

The Precautionary Principle forms the basis for most European
environmental law and is a fundamental component of a number of
international conventions.  Yet it is not actually defined in the Treaty
on European Union, and the most widely used definition (Principle 15 of
the Declaration from the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development (UNCED)) - 'where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used
as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent
environmental degradation' - is vague. We show how Bayesian methods can
be used to provide quantitative advice that is of direct use to decision
makers who have to apply the Precautionary Principle, using the
management of commercial fisheries and endangered species as examples.

LYNDA WARREN (Emeritus Professor of Environmental Law at the University
of Wales Aberystwyth)

Significance in precaution and environmental policy

Significance is a term with a specific meaning in relation to
probability in statistics.  The term is also widely used in a
quasi-scientific way in environmental law and policy both nationally and
internationally.  Used in this way, it is nowhere near as precise in
that the measure of significance is subjective.  This may not be
accidental - flexibility in interpretation can be vital to obtaining
international agreement on treaties.  The problem lies in applying the
term to individual circumstances.  The presentation will focus on the
implementation of environmental assessment legislation and the
application of the precautionary principle.


Paul Gentry
Theme Manager, Meetings & Conferences
Royal Statistical Society
Direct Tel. (020) 7614 3918
Fax. (020) 7614 3905
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