Fen Scott wrote:
> Hi guys.
>
And here is another web pagew with world cup probabilities:
http://www.donationcoder.com/wcp/go/
Kjetil
> Magne Aldrin furnished the list with some topical yet statistically
> pertinent information. Martin Sewell posed an equally valid question, to
> which Dave Walshaw's responses were particularly valid from a
> statistical point of view. Although Allstat isn't a discussion list, I'd
> have been disappointed not to have seen what had to be said on this
> issue.
>
> So Alison is right, shouldn't there be a discussion list for stuff like
> this? And if there is, do any of you lot know of such a list?
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Fen Scott.
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
>> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Macfarlane, Alison
>> Sent: 09 June 2006 18:17
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: World Cup probabilities
>>
>> As the listowner often reminds us this is not a discussion list so
> could
>> statisticians interested in football please set up your own football
>> statistics discussion list and spare the rest of us.
>>
>>
>> Alison Macfarlane
>> Department of Midwifery
>> City University
>> 24 Chiswell Street
>> London EC1Y 4TY
>> Phone (0) (44) 207 040 5832
>> Fax (0) (44) 207 040 5866
>> Email [log in to unmask]
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
>> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of David Walshaw
>> Sent: 09 June 2006 14:14
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: World Cup probabilities
>>
>>> At 17:51 08/06/2006 +0200, Magne Aldrin wrote:
>>>> Those of you that are interested in football in addition to
>>> statistics
>>>> may have a look at the web-page http://vm.nr.no containing winner
>>>> probabilities for each team during the FIFA World Cup in Germany.
> The
>>>> probabilities will be updated daily during the tournament. The
>>>> probabilities are based on a Poisson model. The model is estimated
> by
>>>> maximizing a penalized and robustified Poisson-likelihood, based on
>>>> expert opinions before the tournament starts and the match results
>>>> during the tournament.
>>> Why not simply use betting odds? http://www.oddschecker.com
>>>
>>> Regards
>>>
>>> Martin
>> Well, admittedly as a non-expert, I would say because the
> probabilities
>> at http://vm.nr.no/indexEng.html are free of several sources of bias
>> present in the betting odds:
>>
>> 1. Bookmakers odds are determined partly by bets placed, which are
>> influenced by subjective probability beliefs, but also other factors
>> such as patriotism. This is particulary apparent in a tournament
> between
>> nations. So, for example, if I wanted to bet on England, I would
> expect
>> to get a better price from a German bookmaker than an English one!
>>
>> 2. When betting odds are converted to probabilities, they sum to more
>> than 1, in order to allow the bookmakers to have an expected profit.
>> There is no information on how the adjustments from probabilities to
>> odds are distributed over probabilities of different size, so reliable
>> recovery of the probabilites is not possible.
>>
>> Finally, suppose you are in the situation where you want to place a
> bet
>> on the outcome of the World Cup, but you are out of touch with
> football,
>> how do you assess which bets are good!? The site recommended by Magne
>> seems to be exactly what you need.
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>> Dave
>
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