UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE STATISTICS SEMINAR SERIES
Part of the Business School Research Seminar Programme
www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public/seminars
Supported by Department of Management Systems,
Business School, University of Hertfordshire.
Wednesday 22nd March 2006, 2pm, room M133, de Havilland campus
David Bywaters (University of Hertfordshire Business School)
(work undertaken with D. Gareth Thomas, University of Hertfordshire
Business School)
"A Statistical Analysis of the CBI Survey on Manufacturing Output"
Abstract:
"This paper examines data from the U.K. C.B.I. (Confederation of
British Industry) Survey on respondents' expectations of recent and
forthcoming manufacturing output, together with U.K. O.N.S. (Office of
National Statistics) statistics on actual manufacturing output. The
recent output expectations of the C.B.I. manufacturers are explained
from the O.N.S. observations using a bounded expectations approach
based on the logistic function. This models the diffusion process
across respondents from a backward-looking perspective. The future
output expectations, explained from future O.N.S. observations,
constitute the forward looking diffusion model. Lastly, a model
analyses the forecasting of manufacturing output from the C.B.I.
survey data.
The econometric results obtained provide evidence for the validity of
the logistic model of expectation diffusion, underlining the
importance of bounded rationality in explaining the formation of
expectations among business managers in the U.K."
Forthcoming seminar:
Wednesday 14th June 2006, 2pm, room M133, de Havilland campus
Paul Garcia (Hertfordshire County Council and recipient of Royal
Statistical Society Campion Fellowship)
Title: TBA
For further information regarding location, parking, etc.,
please contact Neil Spencer (details below).
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Dr Neil H. Spencer
Principal Lecturer in Statistics
Director of Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit
Business School, University of Hertfordshire,
de Havilland Campus, Hatfield,
Hertfordshire, AL10 9AB, U.K.
Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit Contact Details:
Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285574; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/centres/sscu
Personal Contact Details:
Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285529; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public
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