Please find below details of the Merseyside RSS Local Meeting to be held
today
at 3.00.
==========================================================================
=================================================
Royal Statistical Society Merseyside Local Group
Wednesday 22nd March 2006 3.00pm-4.30pm
(Tea & Coffee @ 4.30 in Common room, 3rd Floor)
Venue : Penthouse, Maths & Oceanography building University of Liverpool
Epidemiology and Risk
Please contact Ashley Jones ([log in to unmask]) to register a place
==========================================================================
===============================================
New approaches to prognostic modelling with reference to a breast
cancer benchmark
Paulo Lisboa (Liverpool John Moores University)
Prognostic modeling in cancer has relied heavily on two well-established
methodologies, empirical modeling estimation using Kaplan-Meier methods and
parametric estimation with the proportional hazards model. Recent
developments in non-linear methods now extend the arsenal of modelling
tools to more powerful estimators without prior assumptions regarding
non-linearities and pre-set models of time dependence. This supports
detailed analysis of covariate dependencies of hazard ratios, opening the
door to valuable new insights and more accurate predictions for individual
patients.
The talk will use two studies of breast cancer - on a single risk,
mortality, and on competing risks of intra-breast recurrence and distant
metastases - to illustrate the capabilities of the new analytical methods,
which have been developed by a collaborative effort with the
Istituto dei Tumori in Milan.
The role of statistics in health & safety policy making
Simon Webster (Health and Safety Executive)
The role of the statistician in the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has
changed considerably over the last 2-3 years and a high-priority focus of
HSE's current work is based on the government's Public Service Agreement
(PSA) targets, which were agreed in 2000. The targets include a pledge to
reduce incidence of work-related ill health by 6% and reduce incidence rate
of fatal and major injuries by 3% by 2007/08.
Several 'programme teams' came into being, focussing their attentions on
particular areas of concern including stress, musculoskeletal disorders and
slips and trips. Given the obvious emphasis on statistics to gauge the
programmes' progress towards the targets, statisticians have been involved
to a great extent in planning and monitoring the programmes. This talk
attempts to paint a broad picture of the kind of work this involves and the
variety of challenges we face. These include planning and designing
research, assisting the programme teams with setting targets for their own
performance and in general providing an analyst's viewpoint on policy
interventions and decisions.
|