Hi All,
without solving the problem I just like to cite Gerd Gigerenzer, who wrote a
quite interesting book chapter on the topic of statistical reasoning, which
is available online:
http://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/dok/full/gg/ggstehfda/ggstehfda.html
"The superego, the ego, and the id in statistical reasoning"
In: "A handbook for data analysis in the behavioral sciences"
Editors: Keren, G. and Lewis, C.
Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1993 (pp. 311-339)
have fun reading the following paragraphs coming from the above mentioned
chapter,
Thilo
"Freudian analogy":
"The Neyman-Pearson logic of hypothesis testing functions as the Superego of
the hybrid logic. It demands the specification of precise alternative
hypotheses, significance levels, and power in advance to calculate the sample
size necessary, and it teaches the doctrine of repeated random sampling. The
frequentist Superego forbids epistemic statements about particular outcomes
or intervals, and it outlaws the interpretation of levels of significance as
the degree of confidence that a particular hypothesis is true or false.
The Fisherian theory of significance testing functions as the Ego. The Ego
gets things done in the laboratory and gets papers published. The Ego
determines the level of significance after the experiment, and it does not
specify power nor calculate the sample size necessary. The Ego avoids precise
predictions from its research hypothesis; that is, it does not specify the
exact predictions of the alternative hypothesis, but claims support for it by
rejecting a null hypothesis. The Ego makes abundant epistemic statements
about particular results. But it is left with feelings of guilt and shame for
having violated the rules.
Censored by both the frequentist Superego and the pragmatic Ego are statements
about probabilities of hypotheses given data. These form the Bayesian Id of
the hybrid logic. Some direct measure of the validity of the hypotheses under
question - quantitatively or qualitatively - is, after all, what researchers
really want."
(written by Gerd Gigerenzer)
--
Thilo Kellermann
RWTH Aachen University
Pauwelstr. 30
52074 Aachen
Tel.: +49 (0)241 / 8089977
Fax.: +49 (0)241 / 8082401
E-Mail: [log in to unmask]
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