Why Kyoto will never succeed, by Blair
By Patrick Hennessy and James Langton
(Filed: 25/09/2005)

Tony Blair has admitted that the fight to prevent global warming by 
ordering countries to cut greenhouse gases will never be won.

	
Tony Blair

‘Brutally honest’: Tony Blair

The Prime Minister said "no country is going to cut its growth or 
consumption" despite environmental fears.

Mr Blair's comments, which he said were "brutally honest", mark a big 
environmental U-turn and will dismay Labour activists.

They were made earlier this month in New York, at a conference on facing 
up to "global challenges" organised by Bill Clinton, the former United 
States president.

Mr Blair, who has been seen up to now as a strong supporter of the Kyoto 
Treaty, effectively tore the document up and admitted that rows over its 
implementation will "never be resolved."

Mr Blair told the New York conference: "I would say probably I'm 
changing my thinking about this in the past two or three years. I think 
if we are going to get action we have got to start from the brutal 
honesty about the politics of how we deal with it.

"The truth is, no country is going to cut its growth or consumption 
substantially in the light of a long-term environmental problem.

"Some people have signed Kyoto, some people haven't signed Kyoto, right? 
That is a disagreement. It's there. It's not going to be resolved."

His remarks, unreported at the time but now published in a transcript of 
the conference, are certain to spark wide-ranging criticism that he is 
again signing up to the agenda of President George W Bush. Under Mr 
Bush, the US has consistently refused to sign the Kyoto Treaty.

Mr Blair's comments have emerged as his biographer, Anthony Seldon, 
branded him a "weak man" who has been unable to stand up to rich and 
powerful figures such as Mr Bush and Rupert Murdoch.

Mr Blair admitted that there would probably never be a successor treaty 
to Kyoto, which expires in 2012, and said the "answer" was merely to try 
to introduce "incentives" for business and large-scale energy users to 
make cut-backs. He said: "To be honest, I don't think people are going, 
at least in the short term, to start negotiating another major treaty 
like Kyoto."

One of the problems surrounding the Kyoto Treaty was that the harsh 
carbon emissions targets did not apply to developing countries such as 
China and India. Mr Blair said in New York: "China and India... will 
grow. They are not going to find it satisfactory for us in the developed 
world to turn around and say, 'Look, we have had our growth. You have 
now got yours so we want you to do it sustainably even if we haven't'."

The Prime Minister's U-turn comes after years in which he has appeared 
to have been pushing strongly for a binding international treaty on 
climate change.

In a policy-setting speech a year ago he laid out an ambitious agenda, 
declaring: "Kyoto is only the first step but it provides a solid 
foundation for the next stage of climate diplomacy."

The Kyoto agreement called for a global cut of 5.2 per cent in 
greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 over 1990 levels. Britain's individual 
target was a reduction of 12.5 per cent by 2012 but it is not thought 
likely this will be achieved.

Last night Oliver Letwin, the shadow environment secretary, said: "The 
problem with the Prime Minister's new approach is not the theory but the 
practice. Harnessing incentives, markets and technology to make 
prosperity and growth consistent with carbon reduction is the right aim 
- but there is no sign of the Government seriously implementing this in 
the UK.

"And the Prime Minister does not seem to have any clear idea about how 
to implement this on a global scale, which is why Britain has now become 
a bystander, despite the pomp of Mr Blair's various presidencies."

A Downing Street spokesman said last night: "The Prime Minister's 
comments should not be taken out of context. He has said on numerous 
occasions that the Kyoto protocol was and is crucial and the fact that 
156 countries have signed up to it is an enormous achievement."

-- 

George Marshall,
Climate Outreach Information Network, 
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