Dear all
I too welcome this excellent debate stimulated by George Marshall. I realise
that Crisis Forum is predominantly concerned with climate change and have
not contributed so far, but it is also about challenging conventional wisdom
so here goes!
Peak Oil is all about demand out-pacing supply, rather than oil 'running
out' per se. I believe that we have to consider how we would live without
cheap oil in everything we do. One obvious problem with direct relation to
climate change is increased reliance on coal, by countries like China, when
oil becomes too expensive. Which it will - the oil industry isn't working in
ever more hostile off-shore environments around the world because it has a
choice. The net energy implications of extracting the oil which remains will
translate into higher oil prices - the Peak Oil debate is over when this
will happen, not if.
To get back to sustainable transport, a lot less is understood about
fossil-fuel-free (or reduced) transport methods than electricity generation.
By which I mean really looking at the figures - do the numbers add up? E.g.
hydrogen for energy storage is not the answer because its production is so
energy-intensive in the first place (same goes for bioethanol, I believe).
What fuel source can replace oil/petroleum? Unfortunately, barring some
miraculous new discovery, the answer is none. Oil is one of, if not the,
most energy dense materials known. And it's a liquid, not gas or solid,
which aids the ease of storage & transportation. And it's not just a fuel -
it's a raw material for so many products we take for granted: pesticides,
fertilisers, plastics, cosmetics, lubricants etc... I'm sure we all know
this, but I find it's often worth repeating. This is why the 'addicted to
oil' metaphor is so apt - you have to accept the problem before you can fix
it.
I think we'd all agree that renewable electricity will only satisfy demand
if we drastically reduce that demand and I'd go as far as to say reduce it
by 50% by 2020. However, I do not know what this means in terms of daily
life. Would I still have a washing machine? Where would our food come from -
local allotments? As one of my 'hobbies' is developing energy policy for the
Scottish Greens, I welcome any comments on what a certain percentage of
energy demand reduction actually translates into.
Back to the alternatives. Electricity only accounts for about one fifth of
our energy use, with transport making up over half of the remainder. We know
what alternatives there are to fossil fuels for generating electricity but
getting these up & running is proving hard enough (not to mention the near
impossibility of making demand reduction sexy). Transport is much harder to
tackle because our whole economy, globally & locally, relies on a huge
amount of transport. Look at the fuel protests or the big blackouts in
Canada & the US in 2003 to see what happens when our expected access to
energy is curtailed.
As for transport, localisation is the only way to go (that's how to reduce
transport demand - don't go so far) but I appreciated the comments of
another reader on the impact this might have on developing countries, free
trade etc. This is why debates such as these are so useful because a lot of
different perspectives & specialities are brought together.
Corny though it sounds, oil is the life-blood of capitalism - oil is the
cheap energy source on which we built modern societies and on which
economists base their myths of continual growth, which is why I despair when
I see less developed countries looking to the west as some model of how to
do it - when we're a model of how NOT to do it! Oil is what enabled
so-called developed countries to extract cheap resources and labour from
around the world for the last century or more - and it doesn't look like
slowing up.
Peak Oil is seen by some as the saviour of the climate - "the sooner we
can't afford to burn it the better" - not that simple, I'm afraid. I've
referred to the coal problem above, but if oil is at $300/barrel, who's
going to buy it & for what? There will always be a market for those willing
to pay the price but will those consumers be civilians or the military?
I have written this in a bit of a hurry & do not mean to take the debate
away from whether ships or planes are less environmentally damaging (or
depress anyone!) But I do hope the debate can widen out to see that tackling
climate change also tackles the looming energy gap (& vice versa). And
fundamentally we need to change our way of life. Yes, travel to the USA by
the most environmentally benign method if you have to, but without cheap oil
travelling such vast distances simply won't be accessible to many/most
people. Limits to travel must be seen as a necessity which was bound to
arise at some point, not as some conspiracy to deny people pleasures!
I know Peak Oil isn't a popular topic, but I'm hoping that those able to
deal with the enormity of climate change can also deal with oil depletion.
And it's not all negative because the human capacity for invention is not
limited to how to exploit fossil fuels! As Einstein said, "We can't solve
problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them" or
words to that effect. Challenging conventional wisdom has never been more
important!
Mandy Meikle
energy campaigner
----- Original Message -----
From: "A Taylor (NVC Findhorn Slovakia)" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Friday, July 22, 2005 12:47 AM
Subject: Re: SHIP IS 2.5 TIMES WORSE - strategic question
PS Many thanks to all taking part in this ship
2.5 time worse discussion - it's really really
helpful for me.
Queen Mary transatlantic fare now down to $700 if
you buy via USA travel agent. No baggage limit.
Obviously this is special offer.
www.moments-notice.com/6_night_transatlantic_cruise_qm2.asp
I am not aware that the Queen Mary is much less
luxurious than the QEII.
I quite fancy it, to be honest.
(Sometimes it's grimly amusing, being an
environmentalist)
Andy
--
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.338 / Virus Database: 267.9.4/57 - Release Date: 22/07/05
|
