Russia in Global Affairs

2005 No. 001

Contents

The Spiral of Russian History
Fyodor Lukyanov 5

The Post-Soviet Chessboard

From Global Controversies to Regional Conflicts
Mikhail Delyagin

A strategic goal for Moscow would be to bring the process of the Soviet
Union's disintegration to a logical end. This would entail international
recognition of the right to self-determination for those peoples living in
the post-Soviet area, who are willing to be incorporated into Russia.8

The Near Abroad: Increasingly Far Away from Russia
Yekaterina Kuznetsova

If the Russian authorities do not amend their policies, Moscow's efforts to
keep the former 'sister republics' under its influence may force those
countries to turn to those who will offer them a more intelligible scenario
for future development.17

The Orange Color of the Bourgeoisie
Vadim Dubnov

The change of power in Georgia and Ukraine only remotely resembles velvet
revolutions that took place in Eastern Europe some 15 years ago. These are
not popular uprisings that change social order of a country, they are
bureaucratic revolutions, as the most active part of the ruling class feels
that the frameworks of the existing political and economic system are
already too narrow for it.33

Ukraine: Check or Checkmate?
Robert Bridge

Western commentators insist that U.S. interest in Ukraine's recent
presidential election was an altruistic gesture with the purest intentions;
it merely wanted to crack open the blackened windows of the former Soviet
frontier to some democratic sunshine, and other such poetical pretensions.
It would be truly heartwarming if this was really the whole story, but
unfortunately it is not.42

Kaliningrad: Gateway to Wider Europe
Sergei Kortunov

Moscow does not have a geopolitical understanding of the Kaliningrad
Region's role, nor a long-term economic strategy. If Moscow continues to do
nothing, the Kaliningrad Region, like a ripe fruit, will fall into the EU's
hands on its own accord.53

Whither Putin?
The Putin Strategy
Vyacheslav Nikonov

Putin's strategy is built on the principles of the free market, a strong
state and its security organizations; on an open, independent and active
foreign policy; and on respect for traditions, continuity and patriotism.
According to any of the classifications accepted in the world, such a set of
principles is rather characteristic of right-wing politicians and
conservatives.68

The Great Watershed Year
Alexander Budberg

Russian society is obviously going through an abrupt turning point, and the
most capable and notable personalities are once again unwanted in their
homeland. The idea of a civic society, a vogue of the recent past, has
transformed into the judgment of numerous loyalists who are vigorously
tipping the FSB on anything that looks suspicious, while the FSB is fully
unprepared for it.82

Manual Governance
Svetlana Babayeva, Georgy Bovt

"Indeed, Putin's conduct is the one of an absolute monarch," a top official
from the Kremlin remarked frankly. "But you have to govern all that manually
and on a daily basis if you want to keep it under control. Forget about any
system in the next 20 to 30 years, until the time when people who are 18 to
20 years old today come to power."91

Property and Freedom
Mikhail Khodorkovsky

The destruction of YUKOS shows that once the bureaucrats get off their
leash, they become guided by anything but the interests of the state. They
believe that the state machinery should serve their interests, while all
other functions are inessential and can be forgotten (temporarily or for
good). The bureaucrats have no respect for the state and regard it simply as
a mechanism of attaining their personal objectives.107
Identifying Russia's Foes

Mikhail Yuryev

The staunch opponents of the regime, who pretend to hate Putin's Russia,
actually hate Russia per se. This certainly applies to the majority of our
professional democrats and ardent champions of universal human values. Since
the President says we are at war, the people who are against us must be
called foes, not opponents.114

Antiterror Strategies

A No-Compromise War
Yevgeny Satanovsky

Islamists do not wait for concessions from the Russian Federation, nor any
other country they are fighting against. They simply want to destroy the
country and its citizens: atheists and believers, Moslems and non-
Moslems.122

Winning a War While Not Losing the Peace
Alexei Arbatov

Is there anything in common between the armed conflicts in Chechnya,
Afghanistan and Iraq? The answer is, practically everything is different:
their history, their nature, the composition of the conflicting parties and
their goals, the legal basis, social and political consequences, etc. Yet,
there are some points that permit us to compare these conflicts and even
learn some vital lessons from them.131

Global Interaction

Democracy, International Governance, and the Future World Order
Sergei Lavrov

Democracy cannot be imposed from the outside. Attempts to replace a ruling
regime by force only serve to destabilize the situation in a given country.
Democratic institutions must be formed on the national basis of a given
country, while the international community must help create favorable
conditions for promoting this process. It must show respect for the existing
traditions of every country and for the choice of ways to develop
democracy.146

The United Nations: Challenges of Our Time
Yevgeny Primakov

The UN Charter provides for all possible ways to collectively counteract
threats to security and stability. So the question is not how to amend the
Charter, but how to best use the high potential of this document, as well as
the potential of the UN Security Council and the United Nations as a
whole.158

Can Russia and Germany Save the Middle East?
Naiem A. Sherbiny

Something bold needs to be done to salvage the Greater Middle East
initiative and move its fate off dead center for the benefit of all
participants, beneficiaries and donors alike. Russia and Germany are
uniquely qualified to assume the responsibility of saving the G8-GME
initiative. But the available window of opportunity for this historic
initiative is rapidly closing.167

Challenges of Market Building
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa

Although at different stages, both the EU and Russia are transition
economies. In the last two decades, Russia and the EU engaged in
unprecedented market building projects. The EU decided to complete the
Single Market, while Russia, which had been operating for more than seventy
years under the principles of central planning, began transforming itself
into a market economy.176

Insight Into American Policy
The Sources of American Conduct
Alexei Bogaturov

What are the motives behind American foreign policy decisions? To date, when
the U.S. completely dominates the international arena, it is critical to
understand the political, psychological, ideological and cultural sources of
American conduct in order to formulate an adequate policy of relations with
the U.S.188

Limited Possibilities and Possible Limitations
Nikolai Zlobin

Over the last few years, the Russia-U.S. bilateral relations, far from
growing stronger, have approached a dangerous point. The elites in the two
countries have developed feelings of mutual disillusionment with each other,
as well as the suspicion that the other side is secretly nurturing hostile
plans. The presidents' friendship has ceased to be a means for solving these
problems and is actually becoming a means for veiling them.206