I agree that something went wrong here. With only 30 mins notice before the
wave hit Phuket or the Andamans/Nicobar Islands the system which will work
will need to be based around the following rough parameters.
1. At the scientific measuring stations when there is a major
eruption/movement such as this:
- This should immediately be shown to the senior officer on duty
- Computer calculations should be carried out to estimate likely area
of damage
- If this is potentially a major problem (subjective call here), the
senior officer then activates a Master Alert Switch (a bit like
the black/red box we see in the movies when a nuclear strike is
imminent)
- This sends out a warning message that over-rides everything else on
global communication networks. This goes thru' to all TV, radio and
internet providers (I'm sure some Microsoft boffin would love to work this
challenge out ...!!)
In order for this to work all the above needs to be carried out in 10
minutes...
2. When this warning goes out, this sumarises the situation, likely areas
of impact (+ times), and comes up on all TV, radio and internet provider (?)
stations. TV/radio stations will have the ability to counter this if they
live in an unrelated area (eg West Coast of Africa).
This means that there is a chance that even in fairly remote locations
someone will pick up the message. I think it would be useful that national
governments actually make it a legal requirement that the local police down
at village level in coastal areas have to have either their
phone/TV/internet or radio manned 24/7. Under local Disaster/Emergency
Management Plans they will be required to then activate the warning system
(whatever it is) - eg siren.....
Cheers
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Marie Schneider" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2005 8:03 PM
Subject: Re: What went wrong with Early Warning?
Indeed!
With today's internet and email and all the expertise in tsunamis etc., it
is amazing there was no warning somehow transmitted to those affected.
I can only assume that everyone with earthquake notification via email, was
on vacation, like myself...
|--------+------------------------------------------>
| | "komal.aryal" |
| | <[log in to unmask]> |
| | Sent by: Natural hazards and |
| | disasters |
| | <NATURAL-HAZARDS-DISASTERS@JISCM|
| | AIL.AC.UK> |
| | |
| | |
| | 29.12.2004 16:53 |
| | Please respond to Natural |
| | hazards and disasters |
| | |
|--------+------------------------------------------>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|
|
| To: [log in to unmask]
|
| cc: (bcc: Marie Schneider)
|
| Subject: What went wrong with Early Warning?
|
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
"There was a three hour gap between the tremors and the wave.People want
to know why there was no alert." Meena Raman, in Malaysia (Page 5 ,The
Guardian Wenesday December 29 2004)
"Thai officials admitted to the Guardian yesterday they had downplayed
warnings in order to safeguard the tourist industry.(Page 5 ,The Guardian
Wenesday December 29 2004)"
We should analyse seriously.
Komal Aryal
PhD Student (Disaster Risk Management)
Disaster and Development Centre
Northumbria University,UK
-----Original Message-----
From: Natural hazards and disasters
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Twigg
Sent: 22 December 2004 09:57
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: vulnerability to climate change
The latest issue of id21 focuses on climate change and vulnerability (see
below). Generally, I'd recommend id21 to anyone who wants to keep up with
the latest sustainable development research. Subscriptions are free
(details
given below).
*** id21News Number 143, December 2004 ***
RESEARCH FOCUS: Securing development in the face of climate change -
insights #53
* Synergies and trade-offs in climate change responses
* International policy in supporting adaptation
* Responding to drought and food insecurity
* Living with variable climate in southern Africa
* Responding to climate change
* Knowledge about our future climate
* Focus on the Pacific Islands
* Justice and adaptation to climate change
* Variability and extremes in water resources in the Nile river basin
OTHER NEWS: Millennium Campaign launches global website against poverty *
Childhood under Threat - The State of the World's Children 2005 * One of
Every Five Children Suffers From Hunger in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru * More
women are migrating, facing greater risks * GDN Conference
id21News, from the id21 development research reporting service, brings you
the latest and best UK-resourced international development research.
Please forward this newsletter to other interested colleagues. See the end
of the email for details of how they can subscribe.
********
RESEARCH FOCUS: Securing Development in the face of climate change -
insights #53
Climate change poses a potentially major challenge to social and economic
development in all countries. It is widely accepted that at least part of
the earth's 0.6°C warming during the last 100 years is due to emissions of
greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, caused by human activities.
During this century, the world is expected to continue warming, by between
1.4 and 5.8°C. Other predicted impacts are a rise in global sea levels of
between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100, and changes in weather patterns,
including an increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as
hurricanes, floods and droughts. How can developing countries and
development policies ensure progress in a changing climate?
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art00.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53Editorial.html
(see end of message for full instructions on how to receive full research
highlight by email)
********
Synergies and trade-offs in climate change responses
Beyond the climate change community and the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), how much awareness of climate change
is there amongst development organisations? What steps have they taken in
response to climate change? The development community and sectoral planners
in several governments are increasingly asking how the future impacts of
climate change can be included within development activities.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art01.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art1.html
(see end of message for full instructions on how to receive full research
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International policy in supporting adaptation
The world is committed to a certain amount of human-induced climate change
over the next few decades. Some negative impacts of climate change are
inevitable. These impacts are likely to affect developing countries most
severely. Developed countries and wealthier people in less developed
countries may be able to cope with, or adapt to, these impacts. However,
poor people across the world may require assistance to adapt to climate
change and to offset its potentially unequal effects.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art02.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art2.html
(see end of message for full instructions on how to receive full research
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********
Responding to drought and food insecurity
Science cannot predict with certainty how future climate change will affect
food security. Around 800 million people are currently undernourished, and
this number will probably grow as our climate changes.
How will the most vulnerable households and countries cope, when they are
likely to be the most seriously affected and have the least resources to
adapt?
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art03.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art3.html
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Living with variable climate in southern Africa
Southern Africa has experienced severe food shortages over the past few
years. These have been caused by several factors, including climate change
and variability, problems with governance (including poor risk-management,
and inadequate early warning systems) and wider structural issues (such as
globalisation). Many parts of the region are also vulnerable to the impacts
of large-scale environmental change, including land degradation and
biodiversity loss.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art04.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art4.html
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Responding to climate change
The impacts of climate change are already being observed around the world,
from retreating glaciers to changing seasons and rainfall patterns.
Climate change is likely to be evident in the future through more frequent
storms, droughts, heat waves, floods and other extreme events. Each of
these
may affect the security and sustainability of development throughout the
world. Developing countries, particularly least developed countries, are
likely to be exposed to the greatest impacts. However, climate change is
caused by current and past emissions from industrialised countries that
have
more resources to cope with the impacts.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art05.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art5.html
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Knowledge about our future climate
Whilst there is evidence that our climate is changing as a result of human
activities, forecasting future changes remains a significant challenge.
Despite the use of complex computer models, there is a high degree of
uncertainty in forecasts for the next 10 to 100 years. This uncertainty
tends to be greater for small spatial scales but government planners, the
private sector and non-governmental organisations need detailed regional or
local information. Providing this information is perhaps the biggest
challenge to climate science today.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art06.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art6.html
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*******************
Focus on the Pacific Islands
Many Pacific islands are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change such as sea level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
predicts that sea levels will rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 metres by 2100
and continue rising after this. Higher sea levels will cause coastal
flooding and have adverse effects on biodiversity, soils and water
supplies.
Pacific Islanders will be among the first people forced to adapt or
ultimately relocate. The impacts will be felt for many generations because
of the low adaptive capacity in these islands and high vulnerability to
climate-related natural disasters.
http://www.id21.org/insights/insights53/insights-iss53-art07.html
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Justice and adaptation to climate change
Climate change is very much an issue of justice. Our climate is changing
because developed countries have used fossil fuels to pursue economic
growth. Yet climate change will mostly affect developing countries that
have
not contributed to the problem and have a weak capacity to cope with it.
http://www.id21.org/society/insights53art8.html
Email request: GET http://www.id21.org/getweb/insights53art8.html
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Variability and extremes in water resources in the Nile river basin
Climate variability represents a significant challenge for water resources
management. Further changes in rainfall and river flows, caused by human-
induced climate change, undermine traditional methods of water resource
management. They increase the severity and frequency of floods and
droughts,
and increase water scarcity. This is causing major problems for people in
the Nile river basin, from farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, the main
source area, to those in Egypt who are almost wholly dependent upon water
that originates from these highlands.
http://www.id21.org/society/insights53art9.html
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**********************************************
OTHER NEWS:
-----------
Millennium Campaign launches global website against poverty
What is keeping the world from achieving the Millennium Development Goals
is
simply the lack of political will - both in rich and poor countries.
The Millennium Campaign encourages citizens around the world to hold their
governments to account for their promises in the Millennium Declaration and
Goals.
http://www.millenniumcampaign.org/
********
Childhood under Threat - The State of the World's Children 2005 (UNICEF)
Why are millions of children loosing out on their childhood? This year's
report, titled Childhood Under Threat, focuses on how poverty, conflict and
HIV/AIDS threaten the idea of childhood as a period of time for children to
grow and develop to their full potential.
http://www.unicef.org/sowc05/english/index.html
********
One of Every Five Children Suffers From Hunger in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru
To be poor and indigenous and live in marginal sectors on city edges or in
rural zones in the sierra and the altiplano is an almost certain recipe for
hunger in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru. In the Andean subregion, one of every
five children suffers from chronic malnutrition (low height for age between
0-5 years), according to a study presented by the Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Food Programme (WFP)
in Quito, Ecuador.
http://www.eclac.cl/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?
xml=/prensa/noticias/comunicados/2/20352/P20352.xml&xsl=/prensa/tpl-
i/p6f.xsl&base=%5Ctpl-i%5Ctop-bottom.xsl
********
More women are migrating, facing greater risks
Migrant women boost economic development in both their country of
destination and at home, says a UN study marking International Migrants'
Day Saturday. More women are on the move today than ever before in human
history, and they face the "triple burden" of being female, foreign and,
often, working in dangerous occupations, the report noted.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=12794&Cr=migration&Cr1
********
GDN Conference
The Global Development Network (GDN) will hold its Sixth Annual Global
Development Conference from January 24-26, 2005 in Dakar, Senegal. The
theme
of the conference is 'Developing and Developed Worlds: Mutual Impact'.
http://www.gdnet.org/activities/annual_conferences/sixth_annual_conference/
********
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id21News Number 143 December 2004
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