Dear all,
To answer Chris' question, the Richter scale is logarithmic, so each step has ten times the energy release as the
previous one. On that basis a Richter 9 tremblor releases 1,000 times as much energy as a Richter 6 (a 6 is more or less
what we've been seeing in Northridge, Kobe, NW Turkey, Bam, etc., any between 6-7 are the most common destructive
earthquakes we've experienced over the past 10 years or so).
On the question of aid flow monitoring, I think this is a very important question. There is a big difference between
pledges and actual disbursements. In the past NGOs have tried to track this process and expose delays and broken
promises. A small proportion of the money pledged for post-Mitch recovery never appeared on the ground, for example. It
could be that this one is so large that the monitoring effort should be supplemented by another agency such as
Transparency International.
However, I have a more profound doubt and concern. Some of you may have seen my message yesterday about the very
disappointing weakness of the draft programme outcome document that the Kobe conference is likely to approve. We have a
last ditch opportunity to get the drafting committee to revisit this toothless, likely dust-gathering wish-list (really:
a list of desirable policies and practices that are very well known by practitioners and researchers, BUT NOT A WORD on
actual implementation!!).
So, please contact your national delegations. The names of the delegates are all available on the participants list on
the home page of the WCDR (http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr/ ).
Finally, Terry's example of monthly test of flood warning sirens in the Netherlands is very apts. In my home town,
Oberlin, Ohio, the city tests the tornado sirens monthly during tornado season. I think that these coasts affected are
also prone to tropical cyclones, a combined public education program (cyclone and tsunami) and a combined early warning
system would solve the "recurrence period/ public memory/ awareness" problem since cyclones are much more frequent than
tsunamis.
All the best,
BEN
Dr. Ben Wisner
Environmental Studies Program, Oberlin College
& DESTIN, London School of Economics
& Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London
philip buckle wrote:
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "G.Marsh" <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 4:17 AM
> Subject: [Fwd: Re: 9 on the Richter Scale: Please clarify ?]
>
> > Philip
> > Apparently I can't send to the list below > could you send this on for me
> > please.
> > See you on Monday
> > Graham-------- Original Message --------
> > Subject: Re: 9 on the Richter Scale: Please clarify ?
> > From: <[log in to unmask]>
> > Date: Tue, January 4, 2005 4:13 am
> > To: <[log in to unmask]>
> >
> >> Dear All again
> > I have not a clue as to the answer to this question as whether it is 7,8
> > or 9 is quite meaningless to all but those who understand the particular
> > language involved - similar to 1 in 100 year floods. To the lay person
> > there is no understanding.
> > Along with what Terry and Philip have said I also wonder who will be
> > responsible for making sure that the promised aid actually gets through
> > to those who need it? I heard on radio today in Australia that the UN
> > is worried that much of the money will not be delivered. If that's not
> > bad enough, Damien Kingsbury reported that (from memory) in Aceh the
> > Indonesian army is being very selective in the delivery of aid i.e.
> > suspected rebel supporters find it difficult to receive aid; truck
> > drivers are being bribed to deliver to selected people including to the
> > army and the situation is being used to send more troops in to Aceh.
> > There was more. Could the same thing be happening in Sri Lanka?One good
> > thing may be that there are 3,000 US marines now situated there and they
> > along with many journalists may act as a break on the army. How does
> > the
> > international community monitor this then? What lessons can be learned
> > for the future?
> > Reports today also indicate the US is worried about increased poverty
> > leading to terrorism in the future therefore there's a need to give aid
> > massively now. The whole Politics surrounding the aid processes and
> > it's delivery should be monitored then.
> > Could we bounce ideas around through this email listing as to how best
> > to assist in the rebuilding of communities when there's been such
> > family, social, and psychological destruction? How do you rebuild the
> > traditional family structures when there's been such loss of life and
> > place and livelihood?
> > On a slightly different note a letter writer has placed the tsunami in a
> > perspective that we should also be considering i.e. the even greater
> > numbers suffering and dying of AIDS each year.
> >
> > Graham Marsh
> > Coventry
> >
> > Dear all
> >>
> >> From a generalist DRM person, could someone with more technical
> >> expertise please clarify what 9 on the Richter scale is equivalent to
> >> ? I heard an expert on the radio mentioning that 9 was 1,000 times
> >> more powerful than a rating 7. A colleague of mine has questioned
> >> this, believing the multiplier to be 100. Again I've read elsewhere
> >> it's all a bit more complicated than this !! I realise this is a
> >> somewhat moot point, but I want to clarify this issue if possible..
> >>
> >> Thanks
> >>
> >> Chris
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: Terry Cannon
> >> To: [log in to unmask]
> >> Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2005 2:55 AM
> >> Subject: Re: What went wrong with Early Warning?
> >>
> >>
> >> Dear All,
> >> my two pence worth - its already a very rich resource in this
> >> debate.
> >> The main thing I would add is this, which supports Philip's point
> >> about the social and cultural context for warnings being absolutely
> >> crucial! We must avoid at all costs the idea that a warning system is
> >> 'technological' - it has to have the social and cultural elements
> >> built into it from the start.
> >>
> >> Especially, any warning system initiated for Indian Ocean tsunami
> >> will
> >> have to take account of the return period problem. What will people be
> >> doing and conscious of 50 or even 100 years from now? What 'memory'
> >> will people have in Tamil Nadu, Indonesia and Sri Lanka that were hit
> >> in 2004? What can be done in other countries that have not been badly
> >> hit, like Bangladesh and other parts of India?
> >>
> >> Film programmes must be compiled that portray the hazard, that
> >> explain
> >> it, and the threat (and the damage and suffering that it caused. These
> >> films will have to be stored on different media as the technology
> >> changes, with a responsible body for doing this and disseminating them
> >> - for 100 years or more! That means having the resources to do this as
> >> the world (and especially the poorer countries - even if they become
> >> less poor) media change - from video to DVD to whatever at the
> >> consumer end, and in whatever form is useful to the broadcast media
> >> over the years. Regular broadcasts will be needed to remind people.
> >> Other forms of dissemination should be encoured, eg local theatre
> >> activities.
> >>
> >> In Netherlands, everyone is reminded on a monthly basis that many of
> >> them live below sea level. ON the first Monday every month, sirens
> >> blare out at noon to check they are working. I am not sure if they
> >> have evacuation plans, but the warning systems that must be left in
> >> the long legacy outlined above is only going to work if it involves
> >> proper evacuation rehearsals that are updated regularly.
> >>
> >> best wishes,
> >>
> >> Terry Cannon
> >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >> At 00:25 03/01/2005, philip buckle wrote:
> >>
> >> Ben's comments and those that have preceded him in this debate
> >> are
> >> interesting and there can be little doubt that an improved early
> >> warning system would have reduced the loss of lives and the great
> >> number of injuries. Whether it would have reduced property and asset
> >> losses, damage to livelihoods and damage to cultural assets and
> >> social networks is much less clear.
> >>
> >> I take Ben's point and agree with it that the poor, the
> >> marginalised
> >> and the vulnerable have fewer options than the wealthy and their need
> >> to stay to protect assets that are vital to survival may
> >> overwhelm their impetus for self-protection.
> >>
> >> There is evidence from Australia and elsewhere of people, usually
> >> homeowners, choosing to put themselves in the paths of wildfires to
> >> protect their homes. If they are prepared this can be a successful
> >> strategy. Though sometimes it is not. But it illustrates that
> >> responding to warnings, alerts and orders to evacuate is much more
> >> than expecting and achieving an automatic and immediate evacuation.
> >>
> >> Warnings and evacuation have to be seen in the context of
> >> individual
> >> and social behaviour. Many warning and evacuation systems have
> >> foundered on these issues. Where warnings are infrequent people rely
> >> upon local knowledge and information from familiar and trusted
> >> sources, often not governments and scientists. Where warnings are
> >> acknowledged people often require the evidence of their own eyes.
> >>
> >> Much disaster management planning is based on unrealistic
> >> assessments of how people actually do behave in disasters. Obedience
> >> to authority, rational (as defined by disaster managers) behaviour,
> >> acceptance and understanding of information - there is much evidence
> >> that at the critical moment people may not, often do not, behave as
> >> they are planned and expected to.
> >>
> >> This is not an argument against warning systems but an argument
> >> that
> >> they need to be based in the experience, culture and imperatives of
> >> the people and communities at risk. It is an argument too that
> >> warning systems are much more than the technology of conveying
> >> information about the progress of the hazard agent.
> >>
> >> For myself one of the most moving and memorable images of this
> >> disaster has been of the mother running towards the wave to get to her
> >> children.
> >>
> >> Philip
> >> Terry Cannon
> >> Reader in Development Studies, School of Humanities,
> >> University of Greenwich, Old Royal Naval College
> >> 30 Park Row, Greenwich, London SE10 9LS United Kingdom
> >> Phone +44 (0)20 8331 8944
> >>
> >> also attached to:
> >> Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Central Avenue
> >> Chatham, ME4 4TB Kent UK
> >
> >
> >
> >
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