Dear BUGS list
I wonder if anyone can help me with the following problem.
I wish to estimate an underlying variable (number of recruits per month
into a trial) from data on number of recruits in a given number of months
(by month) and from this to obtain a value for the month by which, with
a specified probability, a given number of recruits will be obtained.
I am assuming that the number of recruits per month is distributed with a
stationary (Poisson approximated by normal?) distribution over time. I
expect the number to be around 10 per month.
Any hints as to how to represent this problem as a Bayesian problem and
its solution using BUGS would be very welcome.
Many thanks,
Russell Ecob
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