SEMINAR ANNOUNCEMENT
11:00 on Tuesday 8th November 2005
Room G20, Department of Health Sciences,
University of Leicester,
22-28 Princess Road West, Leicester
(Directions at http://www.hs.le.ac.uk/directions/)
BAYESIAN METHODS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Fabrizio Ruggeri (CNR - IMATI, Milano, Italy)*,
Jesus Palomo (SAMSI and Duke University, Durham, USA) &
David Rios Insua (ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain)
Abstract:
Stemming from a consulting project we considered three activities in
project management: forecast of project costs in the bidding process
and delivery times by subcontractors, estimation of probability of
occurrence of rare events and their disruptive effects (``gravities''),
study of the competitors' bidding strategy. In this talk we deal with the
first two activities in a Bayesian framework.
We consider forecasting with dynamic models when expert's opinion is
available at specific time points about costs or delivery times.
Different models, including copulas, have been considered in the analysis
of unplanned low probability-high impact events in projects.
* Seminar will be given by Fabrizio Ruggeri
All Welcome.
Tea & coffee available from 10:30-11:00.
Further details can be obtained from
Keith R. Abrams
Professor of Medical Statistics
Centre for Biostatistics & Genetic Epidemiology
Department of Health Sciences
University of Leicester
22-28 Princess Road West
Leicester, LE1 6TP, U.K.
Tel +44 (0)116 252 3217
FAX +44 (0)116 252 3272
e-mail [log in to unmask]
http://www.hs.le.ac.uk/~keitha
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