To look at it another way, once in a (typical) lifespan. This might be
regarded as a psychologically powerful threshold in interpreting the degree of
coincidence involved when something like this is noticed. Given the high degree
of public and media interest in soccer in the UK, such a coincidence in unlikely
to go unnoticed - as the premier spectator sport here, arguably no adjustment
for multiplicity of possible sports in which such a coincidence might arise
seems called for. Conversely, if a coincidence of this degree of rarity was
noted in some much more obscure sport, we would feel impelled to add the caveat,
ah well, this is just clay pigeon shooting, there are 100 sports more popular
than this, we should not be too surprised such a coincidence would occur in
some sport. Our obsession with measures of coincidence is understandable but
really quite illogical, as evidenced by the ludicrous nature of these
manipulations to take into account some kind of multiplicity of similar
scenarios.
Robert G. Newcombe PhD CStat FFPH
Reader in Medical Statistics
Wales College of Medicine
Cardiff University
Heath Park
Cardiff CF14 4XN
Phone 029 2074 2329
Fax 029 2074 2898
http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/medicine/epidemiology_statistics/research/statistics/newcombe.htm
>>> Oliver Whelehan <[log in to unmask]> 14/01/05 09:49:08 >>>
I asked:
> In the third round of the English FA Cup (football) there are 64 teams and
> therefore 32 ties. 20 of the 64 teams are from the Premiership. This year
> was an apparently rare event in that no Premiership teams met each other.
> What is the actual probability of this occurring?
I received a range of answers with a clear consensus of 0.012, i.e. about
once every 83 years.
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