The Christmas seminar of the RSS-NE Local group takes place next week,
Tuesday 13 December, 5.30pm, Durham, in room CY60 (previously CG60) on
the Science Site.
Jonathan Rougier will talk about
"Uncertainty and Climate: A Statistician's View"
Synopsis: Our predictions for future climate, and in particular the ways
in which it will respond to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse
gases, depend to a large extent on the evaluation of computer-based
climate simulators. Statisticians have been studying this type of
inference for many years, under the general heading of Computer
Experiments. Long-term climate prediction presents three particular
challenges:
1. The simulators are very expensive to evaluate;
2. They are generally quite poor at representing climate at the
regional level (which is where most of the interest resides);
3. Lots of interesting things could happen in the next 100 years (eg
in technology, economics and demographics).
We look at the ways in which these problems contribute to our
uncertainty about future climate.
To be followed by mince pies and ginger wine. All welcome; more details
from John Little ([log in to unmask]), tel 0191 334 3117.
|