Thanks Stephen. I have just got hold of Anatol Lieven's book and so far it
is quite fascinating. I read that the neocons have driven him out of his job
at the Carnegie Foundation because of it and he is quitting the US. The book
was written before the last election.



Douglas Clark, Bath, Somerset, England ....
 http://www.dgdclynx.plus.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Stephen Vincent" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2005 2:08 AM
Subject: Iraq & Adorno


>I find it impossible to read this piece below from The Independent (London)
> today without impulsively asking, saying, "Did we (USA) have to do this?"
> Let alone why or for what? This war was obviously initiated by folks who
> were - based on all available and present evidence in our hands now -
> ("innocently" or not, crackers from the start, and remain so. Adorno's
> admonition re writing lyric poetry after World War II (and one assumes
> during the war) again sounds pungently clear. Unless someone takes some
> odd
> delight in the now signature images of congealed blood on Iraq's streets
> and
> on the floors and walls of homes, the imagined "treasures" ("democracy" or
> "oil") from the masters who concocted this war will never come 'home.'
> Why - with articles like this one - the likes of Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney,
> Wolfolitz, Gonzales et al are not out on their heels in disgrace remains a
> scary mystery to many of us, of that I am sure. It's hard to imagine -
> without sounding counter-lyrical - that this country is not headed for a
> major shakeout, or, alternatively, and increasingly serious period of
> Government suppression. Though the former will be painful - and no doubt
> with casualties of its own kind - it (liberation from these folks) will be
> radically better than being gradually or quickly victimized on all levels
> by
> the latter.
>
> Disgusting, disgusted.
>
> Stephen V
>
> Iraq: A bloody mess
>
> By Patrick Cockburn
>
> 28 June 2005
>
>
> A year ago the supposed handover of power by the US occupation authority
> to
> an Iraqi interim government led by Iyad Allawi was billed as a turning
> point
> in the violent history of post-Saddam Iraq.
>
> It has turned out to be no such thing. Most of Iraq is today a bloody
> no-man's land beset by ruthless insurgents, savage bandit gangs,
> trigger-happy US patrols and marauding government forces.
>
> On 28 June 2004 Mr Allawi was all smiles. "In a few days, Iraq will
> radiate
> with stability and security," he promised at the handover ceremony. That
> mood of optimism did not last long.
>
> On Sunday the American Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, told a US
> news
> programme that the ongoing insurgency could last "five, six, eight, ten,
> twelve years".
>
> Yesterday in London, after meeting Tony Blair, the new Iraqi Prime
> Minister,
> Ibrahim al-Jaafari, tried to be more upbeat, commenting: "I think two
> years
> will be enough and more than enough to establish security".
>
> Tonight President George Bush will make his most important address since
> the
> invasion, speaking to troops at the US army base at Fort Bragg, North
> Carolina. He is expected to seek to assure increasingly sceptical
> Americans
> that he has a plan to prevail in Iraq, and that the US is not trapped in a
> conflict as unwinnable as the one in Vietnam, three decades ago.
>
> The news now from Iraq is only depressing. All the roads leading out of
> the
> capital are cut. Iraqi security and US troops can only get through in
> heavily armed convoys. There is a wave of assassinations of senior Iraqi
> officers based on chillingly accurate intelligence. A deputy police chief
> of
> Baghdad was murdered on Sunday. A total of 52 senior Iraqi government or
> religious figures have been assassinated since the handover. In June 2004
> insurgents killed 42 US soldiers; so far this month 75 have been killed.
>
> The "handover of power" last June was always a misnomer. Much real power
> remained in the hands of the US. Its 140,000 troops kept the new
> government
> in business. Mr Allawi's new cabinet members became notorious for the
> amount
> of time they spent out of the country. Safely abroad they often gave
> optimistic speeches predicting the imminent demise of the insurgency.
>
> Despite this the number of Iraqi military and police being killed every
> month has risen from 160 at the handover to 219 today.
>
> There were two further supposed turning points over the past year. The
> first
> was the capture by US Marines of the rebel stronghold of Fallujah last
> November after a bloody battle which left most of the city of 300,000
> people
> in ruins. In January there was the general election in which the Shia and
> Kurds triumphed.
>
> Both events were heavily covered by the international media. But such is
> the
> danger for television and newspaper correspondents in Iraq that their
> capacity to report is more and more limited. The fall of Fallujah did not
> break the back of the resistance. Their best fighters simply retreated to
> fight again elsewhere. Many took refuge in Baghdad. At the same time as
> the
> insurgents lost Fallujah they captured most of Mosul, a far larger city.
> Much of Sunni Iraq remained under their sway.
>
> At the handover of power the number of foreign fighters in the insurgency
> was estimated in the "low hundreds". That figure has been revised up to at
> least 1,000 and the overall figure for the number of insurgents is put at
> 16,000.
>
> The election may have been won by the Shia and Kurds but it was boycotted
> by
> the five million Sunnis and they are the core of the rebellion. It took
> three months to put together a new government as Sunni, Shia, Kurds and
> Americans competed for their share of the cake. For all their declarations
> about Iraqi security, the US wanted to retain as much power in its own
> hands
> as it could. When the Shia took over the interior ministry its
> intelligence
> files were hastily transferred to the US headquarters in the Green Zone.
>
> To most ordinary Iraqis in Baghdad it is evident that life over the past
> year has been getting worse. The insurgents seem to have an endless supply
> of suicide bombers whose attacks ensure a permanent sense of threat. In
> addition the necessities of life are becoming more difficult to obtain. At
> one moment last winter there were queues of cars outside petrol stations
> several miles long.
>
> The sense of fear in Baghdad is difficult to convey. Petrol is such a
> necessity because people need to pick up their children from school
> because
> they are terrified of them being kidnapped. Parents mob the doors of
> schools
> and swiftly become hysterical if they cannot find their children. Doctors
> are fleeing the country because so many have been held for ransom, some
> tortured and killed because their families could not raise the money.
>
> Homes in Baghdad are currently getting between six and eight hours'
> electricity a day. Nothing has improved at the power stations since the
> hand-over of security a year ago. In a city where the temperature
> yesterday
> was 40C, people swelter without air conditioning because the omnipresent
> small generators do not produce enough current to keep them going. In
> recent
> weeks there has also been a chronic shortage of water.
>
> Some Iraqis have benefited. Civil servants and teachers are better paid,
> though prices are higher. But Iraqis in general hoped that their standard
> of
> living would improve dramatically after the fall of Saddam Hussein and it
> has not.
>
> Adding to the sense of fear in Baghdad is the growth of sectarianism, the
> widening gulf between Sunni and Shia. Shia mosques come under attack from
> bombers. Members of both communities are found murdered beside the road,
> in
> escalating rounds of tit-for-tat killings.
>
> The talks between US officials and some resistance groups revealed in the
> past few days probably does not mean very much for the moment. The
> fanatical
> Islamic and militant former Baathists and nationalists who make up the
> cutting edge of insurgency are not in the mood to compromise. They are
> also
> very fragmented. But the talks may indicate a growing sense among US
> military and civilian officials that they cannot win this war.
>
> Patrick Cockburn was awarded the 2005 Martha Gellhorn prize for war
> reporting in recognition of his writing on Iraq over the past year
>
> Then and now
>
> Average daily attacks by insurgents
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 0
>
> Handover June 2004: 45
>
> Now: 70
>
> Analysis:
>
> Figures should be viewed with caution because US military often does not
> record attacks if there are no American casualties.
>
> Total number of coalition troops killed
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 0
>
> Handover June 2004: 982
>
> Now: 1,930
>
> Analysis:
>
> Number of US troops killed increased sharply during Fallujah fighting in
> April and November 2004.
>
> Iraqi civilians killed
>
> Pre-war March 2003: n/a
>
> Handover June 2004: 10,000
>
> Now: 60,800 (includes 23,000 crime-related deaths)
>
> Analysis:
>
> Estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths have varied widely because the US
> military does not count them.
>
> Electricity supply (megawatts generated)
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 3,958
>
>
>
> Handover June 2004: 4,293
>
> Now: 4,035
>
> Analysis:
>
> Coalition is way behind its goal of providing 6,000 megawatts by July
> 2004.
> Most Iraqis do not have a reliable electricity supply.
>
> Unemployed
>
> Pre-war March 2003: n/a
>
> Handover June 2004: 40%
>
> Now: 40%
>
> Analysis:
>
> More than a third of young people are unemployed, a cause for social
> unrest.
> Many security men stay home, except on payday.
>
> Telephones
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 833,000 (landlines only)
>
> Handover June 2004: 1.2m (includes mobiles)
>
> Now: 3.1m
>
> Analysis:
>
> Landlines are extremely unreliable and mobile phone system could be
> improved.
>
> Primary school access
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 3.6m
>
> Handover June 2004: 4.3m
>
> Now: n/a
>
> Analysis:
>
> 83 per cent of boys and 79 per cent of girls in primary schools. But
> figures
> mask declining literacy and failure rate.
>
> Oil production (barrels a day)
>
> Pre-war March 2003: 2.5m
>
> Handover June 2004: 2.29m
>
> Now: 2.20m
>
> Analysis:
>
> Sustainability of Iraqi oilfields has been jeopardised to boost output.
> Oil
> facilities regularly targeted by insurgents.
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