We should not only analyse what went wrong with early warning, but also what
went wrong with many donor governments around the world being shockingly
slow to react. Meanwhile, we should be asking questions about other tsunami
warning systems:
1. Those in the Pacific Ocean are confident that their system works.
2. The Caribbean Sea has a plan
http://www.cdera.org/cunews/publish/article_783.shtml but "The availability
of funding will determine how quickly such a system can be implemented".
The cost would apparently be US$2.426 million
http://news.caribseek.com/Barbados/article_7920.shtml Should we call on
donor governments and the public to give $5 million for a Caribbean Sea
Tsunami Warning System to ensure that this region does not experience what
the Indian Ocean has just suffered through?
3. Are any plans in place for an Atlantic Ocean system? Would such a system
be warranted?
4. Are other bodies of water important? The Arabian Sea considering the
1945 tsunami? The North Sea considering the Storegga Slide? The Tasman
Sea? Do we need jökulhlaup early warning systems or GLOF (Glacial Lake
Outburst Flood) early warning systems? See, for example,
http://www.rrcap.unep.org/issues/glof
We should not be jumping on a warning system bandwagon and or assuming that
a warning system would be a panacea. Instead, warning systems are one tool
amongst many for the processes of disaster and risk management and
sustainability. We should be asking whether or not they are needed for
different situations and, if we do decide that they are needed, ensuring
that that they are implemented and sustained properly.
A prominent concern is that an early warning system (EWS) becomes all
technology with none of the social aspects. Many people and governments want
only the automatic event alert, computer models, and sirens. They forget
that early warning is a process, involving education, awareness, knowledge,
training, practice, repetition, integration into other aspects of
livelihoods, and a change of culture and values.
For extensive background and information on EWS, especially EWS as a social
process which often uses technology as one of many tools, see
http://www.esig.ucar.edu/warning and http://www.esig.ucar.edu/galapagos
Ultimately, any EWS must be about sustainability and livelihoods. See
Bangladesh's cyclone early warning system to prove that it can be done.
Ilan
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