Johnson's Russia List
#8342
25 August 2004
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#11
Moscow Times
August 25, 2004
A Conflict That's Right Out of a Gogol Play
By Yulia Latynina

Russia has disgraced itself in Chechnya. Now it seems bent on disgracing
itself in South Ossetia.

The world community has never recognized the republic of South Ossetia,
regarding it as Georgian territory. The fact that most residents of South
Ossetia have been given Russian passports changes nothing. Imagine that
Iran were suddenly to issue passports to the residents of Chechnya. Would
that be sufficient grounds for Iran to annex the region?

Georgia needs to establish control of South Ossetia for economic as well as
political reasons. The country had three gaping holes in its national
borders: the port cities of Batumi and Sukhumi, and the Roksky tunnel,
through which narcotics and alcohol travel north into Russia, while oil and
arms move south into Georgia. Nothing goes through the tunnel without the
knowledge of the Russian peacekeepers -- or rather, traffickers --
stationed in South Ossetia.

The Ossetians and Georgians, both Christian peoples, are totally surrounded
in the Muslim Caucasus and if only for this reason will never try to wipe
each other out. But there is also a well-armed faction that has a vested
interest in stoking the conflict. This powerful faction is alien to the
Ossetian people and has done nothing to improve their standard of living.

At stake is more than just contraband. The budgets of Russia's southern
regions contain generous funds for providing assistance to South Ossetia.
Yet no legal mechanisms exist that would allow South Ossetia to receive
these funds. I don't know how this money is divided up between the puppet
regime of Eduard Kokoity, the Russian peacekeepers who in fact control the
region, and the mercenaries who are now flowing into South Ossetia through
the Roksky tunnel. But I'm sure there's plenty of money left over for the
hired guns.

If the Russian Army knew how to fight none of this would matter. But I'm
not sure that the traffic cops riding around on armored personnel carriers
who supervise the movement of booze and drugs would fare all that well
under fire. And if the head of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in South
Ossetia, Major General Svyatoslav Nabzdorov -- the modern-day Suvorov -- is
so great, maybe we should send him to Chechnya.

I'm no liberal. In fact, I'm an imperialist. I'd like to see Russia
restored within the historical borders of the Russian empire. But before
that can happen, the country must be fortified within its existing borders.
And within those borders today the place is a mess. In Vladivostok, hoods
celebrate their "brother's" victory in the mayoral election. In Kalmykia
the interior minister is suspended and finally enticed to move elsewhere.
In Ingushetia the civilian population, not just rebel fighters, are
sticking it to the cops. And leaders of other ethnic republics threaten the
Kremlin with "gray wolves" and jihad.

In this situation, can it really be in Russia's national interest to defend
the Roksky traffickers? In this war, Russia possesses neither strength nor
good arguments, unless you count Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's comment
that "there's no harm in trying" -- a phrase that alone should convince
Georgia that it needs to join NATO.

To wage war successfully, you need three things: an army that knows how to
fight; a strong country in the rear; and, preferably, a decent pretext for
starting the war in the first place.

Russia has none of the above.

All we have is Nabzdorov, who tells us that the Georgian soldiers are
shooting at themselves. Reminds you of the governor in Nikolai Gogol's play
"The Inspector General," who assures Khlestakov that the non-commissioned
officer's widow "flogged herself."

Do we really expect to win a war when we've got a character from a Gogol
play leading the charge?

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.

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