Johnson's Russia List
#8042
31 January 2004
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A CDI Project
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#2
Russia Said Preparing Nuclear Maneuvers
January 30, 2004
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's nuclear forces reportedly are preparing their
largest maneuvers in two decades, an exercise involving the test-firing of
missiles and flights by dozens of bombers in a massive simulation of an
all-out nuclear war.

President Vladimir Putin is expected to personally oversee the maneuvers,
which are apparently aimed at demonstrating the revival of the nation's
military might and come ahead of Russian elections in March.

The business newspaper Kommersant said the exercise was set for
mid-February and would closely resemble a 1982 Soviet exercise dubbed the
``seven-hour nuclear war'' that put the West on edge.

Official comments on the upcoming exercise have been sketchy. The chief of
Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, Col.-Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, was quoted
by the Interfax-Military News Agency as saying the planned maneuvers would
involve several launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in various
regions of Russia, but he wouldn't give further details.

A Defense Ministry spokesman refused to comment on the reports. The Russian
military typically says little about upcoming exercises.

In Washington, the State Department said it has seen reports that Russia
has plans to conduct the exercises in February. The department also said
Russia is obliged to notify the United States 24 hours before a missile
test and has done so in the past.

Kommersant said the maneuvers would involve Tu-160 strategic bombers
test-firing cruise missiles over the northern Atlantic. Analysts describe
such an exercise as an imitation of a nuclear attack on the United States.

Other groups of bombers will fly over Russia's Arctic regions and test-fire
missiles at a southern range near the Caspian Sea, the newspaper said.

As part of the exercise, the military is planning to conduct several
launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, including one from a
Russian nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, the Kommersant report said.

The military also plans to launch military satellites from the Baikonur
cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and the Plesetsk launch pad in northern Russia - a
simulation of the replacement of satellites lost in action, Kommersant said.

Russia's system warning of an enemy missile attack and a missile defense
system protecting Moscow will also be involved in the exercise, it added.

Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst, said the military has
regularly held nuclear exercises that were timed to coincide with the
annual test-firing of aging Soviet-built missiles.

``It has been a routine affair, but it can be expanded if they want a
show,'' he said.

Ivan Safranchuk, head of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense
Information, a Washington-based think-tank, said the maneuvers would
further strengthen Putin's popularity ahead of the March 14 presidential
election he is expected to win easily.

Putin has repeatedly pledged to rebuild Russia's military might and restore
pride to the demoralized service. When he ran for his first term in 2000,
he flew as a second pilot in a fighter jet and later donned naval officer's
garb on a visit to a nuclear submarine - images that played well with many
voters who are nostalgic for Soviet global power and military prestige.

``This exercise will make a great show, with Putin receiving reports from
military commanders,'' Safranchuk told The Associated Press.

Kommersant said Moscow had notified Washington about the exercise,
describing it as part of efforts to fend off terror threats even though it
imitates the Cold War scenario of an all-out war.

``The exercise follows the old scenario, and casting it as anti-terror is
absurd,'' Safranchuk said.

Putin's support for the United States following the Sept. 11, 2001 terror
attacks bolstered relations with Washington and helped broker a new
U.S.-Russian nuclear arms reduction deal and a Russia-NATO partnership
agreement in 2002.

But the U.S.-Russian honeymoon has soured lately over Moscow's criticism of
the war in Iraq , U.S. concerns about authoritarian trends in the Kremlin's
domestic policy, and Russia's perceived attempts to assert its authority
over ex-Soviet neighbors.

********

#3
Kommersant
January 30, 2004
RUSSIA WILL PLAY OUT A NUCLEAR GAME with itself
Some major military maneuvers are scheduled for mid-February
Author: Ivan Safronov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
[The Defense Ministry has planned some strategic command exercises
in mid-February. According to our sources, Supreme Commander-in-
Chief Vladimir Putin will be involved. These exercises will be the
first of their kind in the last 25 years.]

      The strategic maneuvers are an element of the combat training
curriculum scheduled for mid-February. Three days will be spent
drilling readiness for mobilization among troops in three military
districts (Moscow, Leningrad, and Volga-Urals) and the Northern
Fleet. Right now, the Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin is
inspecting units of the Volga-Urals Military District to see that
they are ready for the exercises. The expected exercises will
include elements of practice by command echelons of the Defense
Ministry and General Staff in troops control during the so-called
"special period," which means the period prior to a war.
      According to our sources, the nature of the exercises will
resemble that of the exercises in 1982, known in the West as "the
seven-hour nuclear war." It was in the wake of those exercises that
President Ronald Reagan came up with his Strategic Defense
Initiative, colloquially known as Star Wars.
      To avoid trouble in the form of negative reactions in the West,
Moscow has warned official Washington of the upcoming exercises.
According to the official version of the story, the exercises will
take place within the framework of preparations to counter the
threat of terrorism.
      The upcoming maneuvers will not match those carried out in
1982. All the same, these will be the largest exercises since then.
The range of participants will be even broader, primarily due to
deployment of long-range aviation and command structures of other
security services, like the Interior Troops and Border Troops.
      Our sources indicate that all fourteen TU-160 strategic bombers
of the 22nd Division in Engels will take off initially. Some of them
will launch guided missiles in the North Atlantic, while the others,
escorted by TU-95MS bombers also from Engels, will overfly the
Arctic and Siberia. On the homeward run the TU-160 and TU-95MS
bombers will be refuelled in mid-air by IL-78 flying tankers of the
203rd AF Regiment stationed near Ryazan. At the same time, TU-22M3
bombers of the 52nd (Shaikovka) and 840th (Soltsy) regiments will
bomb practice targets in Vladimirovka near Astrakhan.
      A Topol ICBM will be launched from Plesetsk at a target on the
Kamchatka Peninsula (the military may also launch 15A18 missiles
from divisional quarters; the matter is being consider now). An
analogous strike with an RSM-54 naval ballistic missile will be
delivered by a Project 667BDRM submarine from the Barents Sea. Space
troops will launch some military satellites into orbit from Plesetsk
and Baikonur. According to the General Staff, the launches are
supposed to imitate prompt replacement of satellites lost to enemy
ASAT weapons. The national missile attack early warning system and
the A-135 around Moscow are supposed to track the launches of the
Topol, RSM-54, and Molniya-M and Zenith-2 missiles.
      When the exercises are over, Supreme Commander-in-Chief
Vladimir Putin will sum them up and appraise the performance of the
Defense Ministry and General Staff, command of the Moscow,
Leningrad, Volga-Urals military districts, the Northern Fleet, and
the Strategic Missile Forces and Space Forces.

********