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Prognosis: Risk Prediction for health outcomes
    (10 places available)

    June 14th - 16th 2004

Offered by UCL (Dept. of Statistics and Dept. of Epidemiology and Public
Health) and Medical Statistics Unit, R&D Directorate, UCLH.
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Risk stratification .League tables.Case mix.Risk adjustment.
Intense interest in prognosis arises when the outcomes of individual
surgeons are compared.  However issues of risk stratification, case-mix
adjustment, and the nature of prognostic enquiry in general, apply to all
facets of medicine, including primary care. Historically research in to
prognostic questions has been neglected by comparison with research into
diagnosis and treatment.

This is the first course in the UK devoted to teaching the principles of
prognostic research. This course is relevant to all health care
professionals who make prognoses, statisticians and epidemiologists who
study prognosis and policy makers who judge prognosis.

With small group seminars and computer practicals, the course will provide
you with the knowledge and skills to tackle your own prognostic questions.
Full course materials are provided.

Course objectives

To outline the scope and importance of prognostic enquiry, using examples
from surgery, hospital medicine and primary care.

To identify principles in the design, analysis and practical use of
prognostic research.

To illustrate methods of developing and fitting statistical models for
prognostic data.

To illustrate methods for the validation of statistical models.



Course Tutors:
  Dr Harry Hemingway
Reader in Clinical Epidemiology
International Centre for Health and Society,
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, UCL

 Dr Rumana Omar
             Senior Lecturer in Medical Statistics
             Department of Statistical Science, UCL and Medical Statistics
Unit, R&D Directorate, UCLH

Dr Gareth Ambler
              Senior Research Fellow
  Department of Statistical Science, UCL and Medical Statistics Unit, R&D
Directorate ,UCLH

 Professor Patrick Royston
 Department of Statistical Science, UCL and  MRC Clinical Trials Unit,
London

Dr. Julie Barber
Lecturer in Medical Statistics
Department of Primary Care and Population Science and Medical Statistics
Unit, R&D
Directorate , UCLH


Who is this course aimed at?
Health care professionals who make prognoses, including:
Physicians
Surgeons and anaesthetists
General practitioners
Nurses, midwives physiotherapists, health visitors

Quantitative researchers who study prognosis, including:
Epidemiologists
Medical Statisticians
Health service researchers, health economists, decision analysts, social
scientists

Policy makers who judge prognosis, including:
Public health practitioners

Course organisers Dr Harry Hemingway, Dr Rumana Omar
Course fee:  £100 (introductory offer)
Please contact Rebecca Richardson, R&D Directorate, UCLH, Vezey Strong
Building, 112 Hampstead Road, London NW1 2LT
   Tel: +44 (0)20 7380 9995  Fax +44 (0)20 7380 9937
    e-mail: [log in to unmask]


Dr. Rumana Omar
Senior Lecturer
Department of Statistical Science
University College London
1-19 Torrington Place
London WC1E 6BT