The next meeting will be on 26th May 2004 at MMU, 4.30 for 5.00pm, in Room E32
John Dalton Building, opposite the BBC. The meeting will be preceded by the AGM at
4.30pm (tea and coffee from 4.30pm).
Title: Is there Global warming? Time Series Analysis of Global Temperature anomalies
Speaker: Tata Subba Rao (UMIST)
Synopsis: One of the hottest(!) topics of the present day (besides terrorism) is Global
warming. A number of scientific articles have been written and every day we come
across an article by science correspondents with scientific evidence showing that there
is significant global warming. We refer to the recent article by Mark Henderson (The
Times,Friday March 5,2004) entitled: Past ten summers were the hottest in 500 years.
In our present paper we consider time series analysis of the monthly Global
Temperature anomalies (observed over the past 150 years) and show through
nonstationary models that there is significant increase. Using CUSUM charts and
nonstationary spectral methods, we try to detect change points. We believe the
change points correspond to significant historical changes in the climate. Our analysis
is only a starting point in this new direction.
For fuller details including directions, please see our web site at
www.rss-manchester.org.
Stephan Rudolfer
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Dr Stephan M. Rudolfer
Honorary Research Fellow in Mathematical Statistics
Chairman, Manchester Group, Royal Statistical Society
Mathematics Department Tel: +44 161 275 5912
The University of Manchester Fax: +44 161 275 5819
MANCHESTER M13 9PL Email: [log in to unmask]
Web: http://www.maths.man.ac.uk/DeptWeb/Homepages/smr/
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