SEMINAR: The University of Reading,
School of Applied Statistics, room AS-G03
Thursday, January 22, 2pm
Professor Steve Haberman (City University)
http://www.city.ac.uk/actstat/dept/shwww.html
Modelling and Forecasting of Mortality Rates
Abstract
The trends in mortality rates for many industrialized countries have been
downwards for several years but forecasts have consistently failed to
predict the trends. Forecasting of these trends is important in a number of
applications, for example in relation to planning social security and
national health systems, and pricing pensions and annuity and related
financial products.
We present different approaches to the modelling and forecasting of
mortality rates, using a consistent framework based on reduction factors
that have been traditionally used by actuaries. In this ongoing research
project, we use this framework to present a coherent structure of models,
which includes generalized linear models, Lee Carter models and enhanced
Lee Carter models that we have developed. The presentation is illustrated
with some examples. The seminar concludes with comments about possible
directions for future research.
All welcome.
Travel information: http://www.rdg.ac.uk/Statistics/info/direc.html
Other seminars: http://www.rdg.ac.uk/Statistics/diary/seminars.html
Posted by: Howard Grubb ([log in to unmask])
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