A reminder about the RSS Reading Local Group meeting this week:
WEATHER FORECASTING
RSS Reading Local Group Meeting
4pm Thursday 17 June (AGM and refreshments from 6pm)
Nike Lecture Theatre
Department of Agriculture
University of Reading
Speakers:
IAN JOLLIFFE (University of Reading)
Forecast verification - did we get it right?
Forecasts are made in many fields, such as economics and atmospheric
science. It is desirable to know how good a forecast was - this is
`forecast verification'. The talk will give a brief overview, and
examine some aspects of verification in greater detail, illustrated
by examples from weather and climate forecasting.
SERGIO PEZZULLI (University of Reading)
The economic value of seasonal weather forecasts for the UK energy
industry
The UK energy market is sensitive to climate fluctuations. Numerical
weather prediction models can help to forecast electricity demand,
but their economic value depends on the lead time. A case study, in
collaboration with National Grid Transco PLC, illustrates how
statistical decision theory can assess the value of seasonal
predictions.
Discussant:
DAVID ANDERSON (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting)
Notes:
The AGM of the Reading Local Group will follow this meeting. Anyone
wishing to stand for election to the committee should contact the
treasurer, Howard Grubb, on [log in to unmask] before 17 June.
Directions are available at http://www.rdg.ac.uk/RSSLocal/
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