MOZAMBIQUE 
POLITICAL PROCESS 
BULLETIN

Local Election e-mail special issue 4
Thursday 20 November 2003, 1800

======

HEADLINES:

RENAMO COLLAPSES
LOW TURNOUT

RESULTS AS REPORTED BY MEDIA
Frelimo wins Dondo, Montepuez, Mocuba, Milange, Tete, Moatize, 
     Catandica, Chimoio
Renamo wins Beira, Nacala, Angoche, Ilha
Marromeu depends on CNE and "nulos"

A LOOK AT OUR TARGET CITIES

===============

MOZAMBIQUE POLITICAL PROCESS BULLETIN

Editor: Joseph Hanlon 
Assistant Editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Published since 1992 by AWEPA, 
the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Rua Licenciado Coutinho 77 (CP 2648) Maputo
Tel: +258 (1) 41 86 03, 41 86 08, 41 86 26  
Fax: +258 (1) 41 86 04

Special issues of the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin (MPPB) will be
published several times during the local election process by e-email and
in English only. Issue 29 of the MPPB, printed and in English and
Portuguese, will be published on 4 December 2003.
To add yourself or a colleague to the e-mail list, to be added to the
Maputo distribution list for hard copies, or to contact the editor, send a
message to [log in to unmask]

===============


RENAMO COLLAPSES

Renamo has done much worse than expected in local elections Wednesday 19
November. 

Turnout in many places was less than 15%, although the turnout in Angoche,
where there was a close contest between Frelimo and Renamo, was over 30%.

Renamo is expected to win Beira, Nacala, Angoche, and Ilha de Moçambique
(where a second round for president may be required). But it lost key
target municipalities such as Chimoio, Mocuba, Montepuez, and Dondo. It
even lost Milange, which had the highest Renamo majority of any
municipality in the 1999 national election.

On partial results, Radio Moçambique predicts a Frelimo victory in Nampula
and Renamo wins in Nacala and Ilha de Moçambique. Other media reports
suggest Frelimo victories in Quelimane and Lichinga.

The result in Moçimboa da Praia is too close to call and on Ilha de
Moçambique there are too few numbers to know if a second round will be
needed or if the Renamo candidate gained more than 50%.

In general, small parties and independent candidates have done badly. In
Majacaze the Frelimo dissident Idrisse Abdala gained only 19% of the vote,
while in Inhambane the well know figure Aida Chicalia gained only 4%.
IPADE, an NGO set up by Raul Domingos, the former head of the Renamo
parliamentary group, who was expelled from the party in 2000, has not done
well so far in the muncipalities in which it stood. Domingos is setting up
a new opposition party, the PDD (Party for Peace, Democracy and
Development) based on IPADE. 


RENAMO CONTESTS 
MOCUBA RESULTS

Jose Manteigas, the candidate from the opposition Renamo-Electoral Union
(R-UE) coalition for president (mayor) of Mocuba, announced that he will
seek to have the results of Wednesday's election cancelled. Manteigas was
overwhelmingly defeated by the Frelimo candidate, Rogerio Gaspar. But in
an interview by Radio Mozambique, Manteigas said he had been at a
disadvantage because of his initial
disqualification.

The National Elections Commission (CNE) disqualified Manteigas because it
believed he had falsified the document used to prove that he is a resident
of Mocuba. Renamo appealed against the disqualification. The
Constitutional Council, which has the final say in electoral disputes,
reversed this decision, but only on Monday when the election campaign was
already over. 

There was torrential rain in Mocuba on polling day and the turnout was
less than 15%.

LATE AFTERNOON RESULTS

Radio Moçambique and other media, including the Bulletin, are using the
results sheets (editais) posted on the door of each polling station to do
their own counts before any official results are announced. Radio
Moçcambique transmitted partial results throughout the day based on its
own count. Below are final or near final results published by late
afternoon Thursday, in presidential elections, most from RM and
transmitted by AIM:


CABO DELGADO

Pemba

Agostinho Ntuali (Frelimo) 8,241
Mussa Incacha (Renamo) 3,391
Fabiao Namiva (Independent) 466

Montepuez (full count)

Rafael Correia (Frelimo) 8,250
Luis Culaire (Renamo) 2,805

Mocimboa da Praia (incomplete)

Cassimo Abdala (Frelimo) 3,454
Jaide Assane (Renamo) 3,340

NIASSA

Cuamba

Teodosio Uatata (Frelimo) 972
Maria Moreno (Renamo) 802
(Very partial results, but Frelimo has claimed victory)

Metangula (full count)

Anafe Achimo (Frelimo) 1,334
Orlando Esquadro (Renamo) 164

NAMPULA

Angoche

Alberto Assane (Renamo) 5,408
Jose Constantino (Frelimo) 5,001
Isidro Assane (Independent) 456
(This would suggest a second round, but later results suggests Alberto
Assane will gain 51% of the vote and avoid a run-off.)

ZAMBEZIA

Gurue

Joao Bernardo (Frelimo) 2,045
Luis Silva (Renamo) 565
Baptista Juliao (Union for Change) 135

Mocuba (37 of 38 polling stations)

Rogerio Gaspar (Frelimo) 3,287
Jose Manteigas (Renamo) 1,215

Milange (full count)

Loborino Alamane (Frelimo) 1,760
Lourenco Impissa (Renamo) 617

TETE

Tete

Cesar de Carvalho (Frelimo) 13,643
Jose Caloamba (Renamo) 5,528

Moatize

Cassiano Marcelino (Frelimo) 4,659
Fabiao Bjingue (Renamo) 1,624

MANICA

Chimoio

Alberto Sarande (Frelimo) 10,637
Pedro Siavaca (Renamo) 6,447

Catandica 

Eusebio Gondiwa (Frelimo) 2,300
Verediano Manivete (Renamo) 612

Manica

Moguene Candeeiro (Frelimo) 3,549
Jose Nicolau (Renamo) 926

SOFALA

Marromeu (full count)

Alberto Joaquim (Frelimo) 1,943
Joao Agostinho (Renamo) 1,931
The city assemby result is even closer, with a 7 vote gap. The official
results will depend on the reconsideration of the spoiled ballot papers
(nulos) by the national election commission. It is expected that there
will be about 400 nulos, of which more than 100 may be considered
acceptable. That could be enough to tip the balance.

Dondo (nearly complete)

Manuel Cambezo (Frelimo) 6,299
Joaquim Greva (Renamo) 3,247
Matias Traquino (IPADE) 610

INHAMBANE

Inhambane

Lourenco Macul (Frelimo) 5,213
Francisco Manuel (Renamo) 578
Aida Chicalia (Independent) 267
Jose Pagula (IPADE) 137

Maxixe

Narciso Pedro (Frelimo) 5,169
Manuel Manhique (Renamo) 642

Vilankulo (full count)

Sulemane Amugi (Frelimo) 3,143
Manuel Gulucha (Renamo) 383

GAZA

Chibuto

Francisco Chichongue (Frelimo) 5,952
Pedro Pelembe (Renamo) 513

Manjacaze

Casimiro Monjane (Frelimo) 1,430
Idrisse Abdala (Independent) 339
Aurelio Jamisse (Renamo) 43

Manhica

Alberto Chicuamba (Frelimo) 874
Antonio Cavele (Renamo) 85

All the above results are unofficial. Intermediate results must be
announced at city level by Saturday and final results will be announced by
the National Elections Commission.

LOW TURNOUT
IN MOST PLACES

Initial reports indicate quite a low turnout in most places, but in many
places a sharp difference was noted between people who had registered this
year and those who had registered in 1999. In Maputo, for example, the
turnout of those who registered in July 2003 was between 35% and 50%,
while the turnout of 1999 registrants was below 15%. Since only a fifth of
voters registered this year, this suggests a very low overall turnout.
This explains the phenomenon of queues at just a few polling stations --
in many places, there were different polling stations (mesas) for the new
registrants.

========

In the first election special, we cited 14 MUNICIPALITIES TO WATCH. Our
original comments are in <pointed brackets like this> and our updated
comments follow.

<Mocimboa da Praia: very close race (54% Renamo Electoral Union -- RUE --
in 1999 parliamentary elections) but with a successful Frelimo president
who improved the water supply. Straight fight between Frelimo and Renamo,
with no other parties or independents.>

Very close, as forecast.

<Montepuez: history of violence and sharp divisions plus serious economic
problems, 71% Frelimo in 1999 but Renamo making a strong push.>

75% Frelimo

<Nampula: very close race (55% Frelimo in 1999)>

close as predicted

<Nacala: 66% RUE in 1999, but with probably the best municipal government
in Mozambique and a popular Frelimo president, this municipality will show
how voters balance national versus local considerations. A citizens list,
OCINA, which won assembly seats in 1998, is standing for both president
and assembly. Possible second presidential round. Possibly no majority
party in the assembly; if that happens, will OCINA ally with Renamo or
Frelimo?>

Renamo ahead in close race

<Ilha de Moçambique: 60% RUE in 1999, but with a strong presidential
candidate and assembly list from Unidos pela Ilha (United for the Island).
Possible independent win. Possible second presidential round. Possibly no
majority party in the assembly.>

Renamo ahead in close race

<Quelimane: very close race -- 56% RUE in 1999 but with successful Frelimo
president. IPADE has a presidential candidate who could take votes from
Renamo, and might also force a second round. Five small parties standing
for assembly; if they win seats it could leave the assembly with no
majority party.>

No results yet.

<Mocuba: Renamo presidential candidate disqualified in a city Renamo could
win, so possibility of a Frelimo president and a Renamo assembly.>

Frelimo victory.

<Gurue: close race between Frelimo and Renamo with a citizens list
standing for both president and assembly. Possible second round and no
majority party.>

Not close, Frelimo 74%

<Moatize: close race in a small town between two teachers at the same
school.>

Not close, huge Frelimo margin.

<Catandica: this tiny town had the smallest difference between parties in
1999, voting only 52% Renamo.>

Not close; huge Frelimo margin.

<Beira: would be expected to vote Renamo, but the question is how many
votes IPADE will take away from Renamo.>

Renamo win forecast.

<Dondo: 65% Renamo in 1999, but with a good Frelimo municipal government
and IPADE standing as well, it could be close.>

62% Frelimo; only 5% IPADE.

<Inhambane: overwhelmingly Frelimo city, but with a particularly poor
Frelimo president and assembly, a strong independent candidate for mayor
could prove a surprise.>

Independent did badly.

<Maputo city is overwhelmingly Frelimo, but the first Frelimo city
government gained a very bad reputation, and there could be substantial
abstentions and protest votes to the four other presidential candidates.
Would this be enough to deny the Frelimo candidate Eneas Comiche more than
50% and force a second round? That would be very embarrassing for Frelimo.>

On a low turnout, Frelimo mobilised its core vote and avoids a second
round.



===============

MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Local Election e-mail special issue 4
Thursday 20 November 2003, 1800


Editor: Joseph Hanlon 
Assistant Editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Published since 1992 by AWEPA, 
the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Rua Licenciado Coutinho 77 (CP 2648) Maputo
Tel: +258 (1) 41 86 03, 41 86 08, 41 86 26  
Fax: +258 (1) 41 86 04

Special issues of the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin (MPPB) will be
published several times during the local election process by e-email and
in English only. Issue 29 of the MPPB, printed and in English and
Portuguese, will be published on 4 December 2003.
To add yourself or a colleague to the e-mail list, to be added to the
Maputo distribution list for hard copies, or to contact the editor, send a
message to [log in to unmask]

===============