Dear UTSG listmember,
A previous email read:
"This [undervaluation], however, is not the theoretical situation described in the literature..."
This is not strictly true:
Phil Goodwins recent paper, which has just been released for the ECMT conference, is one of the few examples I can find of a transport paper that is consistent with Vierordt's law:
"... overall, the authors assessment is that the benefits as calculated are underestimates, not overestimates" Goodwin. P. (2003) p7.
(Vierordts's law: underestimates (of value) are are generated from the systematic, subjective overestimation of objective time [i.e. duration], over short durations).
If there are any examples of Vierordt's law which UTSG listmembers are aware of, they are dificult to find and I would be greatfull to know of any.
Regards
Michael Nandris
Goodwin. P. (2003) 'The economic costs of congestion when road capacity is constrained: lessons from congestion charging in London'. ECMT symposium: Subtopic 1: Transport and Economic growth: which interdependencies? October 2003.
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