Wishful thinking, I'm afraid, Anny. The findings of polls on these issues
have been consistent.
You're talking about random samples, which is not what happened in this
case. Serious polls are based on predetermined samples--so many of a given
income level, education, gender, etc, which are then weighted so that no
one group exercises an influence on the conclusions greater than its
proportion in the population. If too large a proportion of females answer,
for instance, the results are weighted so that those respondents have no
more influence on the conclusion than the males. The phone polls, when it's
a phone poll, are conducted in the evening. There are usually a few
questions to identify the demographics of the respondent, although a lot of
thye distribution is determined by neighborhood--the census bureau provides
a pretty good idea of how well-educated people in my neighborhood tend to
be, for instance. Protection against skewed results by accidentally calling
only atypical residents is provided by the size of the poll sample.
Polling methodologies are not just a matter of theory. This poll was
conducted by a university polling organization, but the methodologies
behind it bare tested and retested in the marketplace. Polling companies
make their livings by providing accurate data, primarily to industry. They
constantly test their methodology--there is a lot of competition.
What could be considered another kind of poll roughly confirms the numbers
of the one reported in the Inquirer. Recently several college educated
people have assured me that France is an enemy of the US. Figures for the
sales of French wines would seem to indicate that that sentiment is fairly
widespread. The US has never bought much French jug wine, so we're talking
about wines that compete with California vintage wines. Almost all French
wines in this category are cheaper than their California equivalents. Yet
imports of these wines is down 40% (if memory serves) since "we" decided to
go to war.
Mark
At 01:27 PM 7/6/2003 +0200, you wrote:
>Besides that statistics are wrong, they are based on samples of population.
>In Italy, exception made for me and few other people who sometimes manage to
>work at home, the telephone calls answered by those who carry out statistics
>are by usually elderly -women- without education. Or children; at the best
>teen-agers who are doing their homework. If we can consider these people the
>representatives of our society, well then, statistics are right!
>I need more data. Who promoted the poll? How was it carried out? Don't tell
>me they interviewed all the ones who have an American passport, because in
>that case no one asked me a single question on the topic.
>Sorry Doug, it is not personal against you, but against a trend which gives
>things too easily for granted, I usually doubt of the specialized statistics
>done by universities, and can read much more behind the answers, we have to
>remember that each one who was interviewed, sometimes with a name an address
>and so on, has a personal history and an individual character. One can
>broadly outline them from the outside by checking their answers.
>Care, anny
>
>From: "Deborah Russell" <[log in to unmask]>
>
>
> > I don't understand why anyone would be surprized at the results. Most
>people
> > live in small universes, that include what is relative to their family and
> > friends. People do not take time to concern themselves with politics or
> > educate themselves about world events, they leave that to 'the experts'.
> >
> > deborah russell
> > http://groups.msn.com/ParallelsStudio
> > http://www.worldhaikureview.org
> >
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~
> >
> > Thought this article might interest you.
> >
> >
> >
> > Douglas Clark, Bath, Somerset, England ....
> > Lynx: Poetry from Bath ......
> > ... http://www.dgdclynx.plus.com/lynx.html
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Bill in Frankfurt" <[log in to unmask]>
> > Newsgroups: uk.current-events.terrorism
> > Sent: Saturday, July 05, 2003 9:39 PM
> > Subject: Ignorance at large.
> >
> >
> > > I really do not understand how one third of the US population, about
> > > 93,000,000 people, can believe that WMD have been found in Iraq. Nor
>how
> > > 140,000,000 can believe that Iraqis were among the Sept 11 hijackers.
> > > Frankly it is mind-boggling.
> > >
> > > Bill in Astonishment (still waiting for Brenchly to tell him how to
> > cancel
> > > his sig)
> > >
> > > ==================================
> > >
> > >
> > > War poll uncovers fact gap - Many mistakenly believe U.S. found WMDs in
> > Iraq
> > > 05.07.2003 [08:22]
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > WASHINGTON - A third of the American public believes U.S. forces
> > have
> > > found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, according to a recent poll.
> > > Twenty-two percent said Iraq actually used chemical or biological
> > weapons.
> > >
> > > But such weapons have not been found in Iraq and were not used.
> > >
> > > Before the war, half of those polled in a survey said Iraqis were
> > > among the 19 hijackers on Sept. 11, 2001. But most of the Sept. 11
> > > terrorists were Saudis; none was an Iraqi.
> > >
> > > The results startled even the pollsters who conducted and
>analyzed
> > the
> > > surveys. How could so many people be so wrong about information that
>has
> > > dominated news coverage for almost two years?
> > >
> > > "It's a striking finding,"said Steve Kull, director of the
>Program
> > on
> > > International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, which
>asked
> > > the weapons questions during a May 14-18 poll of 1,256 respondents.
> > >
> > > He added: "Given the intensive news coverage and high levels of
> > public
> > > attention, this level of misinformation suggests some Americans may be
> > > avoiding having an experience of cognitive dissonance."
> > >
> > > That is, of having their beliefs conflict with the facts. Kull
> > noted
> > > that the mistaken belief that weapons had been found "is substantially
> > > greater among those who favored the war."
> > >
> > > Pollsters and political analysts offer several reasons for the
>gaps
> > > between facts and beliefs: the public's short attention span on foreign
> > > news, fragmentary or conflicting media reports that lacked depth or
> > > skepticism, and Bush administration efforts to sell a war by
> > oversimplifying
> > > the threat.
> > >
> > > "Most people get little whiffs and fragments of news, not in any
> > > organized way," said Thomas Mann, a scholar at the Brookings
>Institution,
> > a
> > > centrist-liberal think tank. "And there have been a lot of conflicting
> > > reports on the weapons."
> > >
> > > Before the war, the U.S. media often reported as a fact the
> > assertions
> > > by the Bush administration that Iraq possessed large stockpiles of
> > illegal
> > > weapons.
> > >
> > > During and after the war, reports of possible weapons discoveries
> > were
> > > often trumpeted on front pages, while follow-up stories debunking the
> > > reports received less attention.
> > >
> > > "There were so many reports and claims before the war, it was
>easy
> > to
> > > be confused," said Larry Hugick, chairman of Princeton Survey Research
> > > Associates. "But people expected the worst from Saddam Hussein and made
> > > connections based on the administration's policy."
> > >
> > > Bush has described the preemptive attack on Iraq as "one victory
>in
> > > the war on terror that began Sept. 11." Bush officials also say Iraq
> > > sheltered and helped al-Qaeda operatives.
> > >
> > > "The public is susceptible to manipulation, and if they hear
> > officials
> > > saying there is a strong connection between Iraq and al-Qaeda
>terrorists,
> > > then they think there must be a connection," Mann said.
> > >
> > > "Tapping into the feelings and fears after Sept. 11 is a way to
> > sell
> > a
> > > policy," he added.
> > >
> > > Polls show strong support for Bush and the war, although 40
>percent
> > in
> > > the May survey found U.S. officials were "misleading" in some of their
> > > justifications for war. A majority, 55 percent, said they were not
> > > misleading.
> > >
> > > Several analysts said the murky claims and intelligence data
>about
> > > lethal weapons and terrorist ties allowed most people to see such news
> > > through the filter of their own political beliefs.
> > >
> > > And GOP pollsters said any controversy over weapons won't change
> > > public attitudes, because ridding Iraq of an oppressive regime was
>reason
> > > enough for war for many Americans.
> > >
> > > "People supported the war for national-security reasons, and that
> > > shifted to humanitarian reasons when they saw evidence of Saddam's
> > > atrocities," Republican strategist Frank Luntz said. "There's an
> > assumption
> > > these weapons will be found because this guy was doing so many bad
> > things."
> > >
> > > Several analysts said they were troubled by the lack of knowledge
> > > about the Sept. 11 hijackers, shown in the January survey conducted for
> > > Knight Ridder newspapers. Only 17 percent correctly said that none of
>the
> > > hijackers was Iraqi.
> > >
> > > "That really bothers me, because it shows a lack of understanding
> > > about other countries - that maybe many Americans don't know one Arab
> > from
> > > another," said Sam Popkin, a polling expert at the University of
> > > California-San Diego who has advised Democratic candidates. "Maybe
> > because
> > > Saudis are seen as rich and friendly, people have a hard time dealing
> > with
> > > them as hijackers."
> > >
> > > Hugick said his analysis showed those who were misinformed were
>not
> > > necessarily those who had less education.
> > >
> > > "I think a lot of people are just confused about the threats out
> > > there," he said.
> > >
> > > http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/6085261.htm
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Deborah Elizabeth Russell, Artist/Poet
> >
> > Post Poems | Inside | Cityslide
> > Shadow Poetry | Parallels Words For The Wind
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
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