Lancaster University
Department of Management Science
Seminar
Thursday 13th March 2003 at 2pm in C103, Management School
Puzzling Dynamics in Everyday Systems
John Morecroft
London Business School
System dynamics models representing real firms and industries often exhibit
puzzling (economically inefficient) performance over time. The purpose of a
modelling study is to explain the reasons for such puzzling performance, why it
persists, and how to redesign policies to make the firm or industry work
better. This presentation explores the dynamics of everyday systems such as
hotel showers, manufacturing supply chains and international fisheries.
We review the feedback structure of these systems and then use simulation to
demonstrate why hotel showers can be hazardous and why fishermen and regulators
are often in conflict. We also try out a variety of policy changes to improve
performance. What does it take to ensure a comfortable shower or well-stocked
fisheries?
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