This is a really interesting paper. I have come across some similar
instances, and have often wondered if there is something published on this.
While visiting some coastal villages in the cyclone prone state of Andhra
Pradesh in South India, I was once introduced to a very old looking man,
said to be over 90 years of age, who had successfully predicted the
devastating cyclones of 1977 and 1996 a couple of days before the formal
warnings came in. He said he can make an incoming cyclone out by observing
birds flying inland, fish coming inland and into creeks, and by pinching the
skin at the back of his hand. The time taken by the pinched skin to return
to normal tells him about atmospheric moisture and pressure! Didn't know
how much to beleive.
Similarly, after the Chamoli earthquake of 1999 and the Gujarat one of 2001,
there were numerous reports of people having observed rising water levels in
wells, changing colours of natural streams, emergence of snakes, crying
dogs, cattle running to high ground etc in the days and hours before the
quakes.
Plagues have always been predicted on the observation of dying rats.
The UN Global Programme for the Integration of Public Administration and the
Science of Disasters (www.globalwatch.org/ungp/) does look at such issues
and promotes them. Are there any other credible researched resourses on
traditional wisdom and the science of disasters??
Anshu Sharma
SEEDS, India
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Twigg" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 23, 2003 2:15 PM
Subject: indigenous early warning indicators of cyclones
> A new disaster studies working paper has been published by the Benfield
> Hazard Research Centre: 'Indigenous early warning indicators of cyclones:
> potential applications in coastal Bangladesh' by Philippa Howell.
>
> You can download this from the Centre's website
> http://www.benfieldhrc.org/DMU/WorkingPapers/workingpaper6.pdf
>
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