The session described below may be of interest. Apologies for cross-posting.
Sandy Steacy
S05 Stress Transfer, Triggered Earthquakes, and Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard
Over the past 10 years, it has become clear that very small stress
perturbations can trigger earthquakes. Research in the field has progressed
to the consideration of how estimated stress changes can be used to assess
time-dependent seismic hazard, with techniques for the latter ranging from
qualitative identification of areas of enhanced or diminished likelihood of
large aftershocks or mainshocks to computing probability changes on major
frictional faults subjected to sudden stress changes. From a nonlinear
perspective, however, triggered events are a natural outcome of a system's
sensitivity to small perturbations, and hence quantification of any relation
between stress change and seismic hazard may be very difficult. The aim of
this session is to bring together researchers from different perspectives,
as well as end users and experts in seismic hazard, to discuss the physics
of earthquake triggering and to explore the confidence with which we can
estimate time-dependent seismic hazard.
Conveners: Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Geophysics Research Group
Cromore Road , Coleraine, BT52 1SA IRL, Tel: 44 (0)28 7032 4242, Fax: 44
(0)28 7032 4911, email: [log in to unmask], and Joan Gomberg, US
Geological Survey, 3876 Central Ave Ste 2, Memphis, TN 38152-3050 USA, Tel:
901-678-4858, email: [log in to unmask]
Co-sponsors: Geodesy, Nonlinear geophysics, Tectonophysics
Deadline for submission is 4 September 2003, 1400 UT (electronic) and the
form is at http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm03/
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