Joint Health and Social Care Modelling Group
- OR Society Health and Social Services study group Seminars 2003
All seminars are in Room 5.06 at the University of Westminster, 9-18 Euston
Centre, London (off Drummond Street, nearest tube: Warren Street). Tea, coffee,
and biscuits will be served.
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Date: MONDAY 7 April 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Dr Adele Marshall, Queen's University Belfast, UK
Title: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to model patient outcomes and length of
stay in hospital
Abstract:
Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are graphical models which represent
potential causal relationships between variables and attach probabilities
based on Bayes' Theorem to assess the likelihood of certain events
occurring. The extension of Bayesian belief networks to include continuous
variables has been considered by Lauritzen et al. (1989) who introduced
Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions. However the CG distributions are
not appropriate for modelling data that is skewed in nature. This has
inspired the development of the conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph)
which uses Bayesian belief networks to represent the interrelationships
between discrete variables in the model and a Coxian phase-type
distribution to represent skewed survival distributions. The application
considered is the modelling of patient outcomes and duration of stay in
hospital using BBNs to represent the causal relationships between patient
variables and Coxian phase-type distributions to model the continuous
distribution of patient survival in hospital.
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Date: Tuesday 13 May 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Dr Ruth Davies, University of Southampton, UK
Title: Using simulation for evaluating resource requirements and cost-utilities
of treatments for end-stage renal failure
Abstract: tba
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Date: Tuesday 3 June 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Prof Jim Bryant and Dr John Darwin, Sheffield Hallam University, UK
Title: Managing Dilemmas and Paradox
Abstract:
Health systems can be thought of as fuzzy collections of semi-automomous
agents, whose responses often seem arbitrary and whose actions are frequently
unexpected. The traditional approach to managing such systems has been through
the imposition of control through rules, requirements and regulations;
experience, particularly in recent years as the complexity of such systems has
increased, has demonstrated how inappropriate such an approach can be. The
novel behaviours emergent from interaction and co-evolution in complex social
systems offer fresh challenges for health service managers. In this
presentation we shall introduce and discuss some novel approaches to the
development and evaluation of relationships in health service delivery and
management. We shall describe some of our recent work relating to clinical
governance and to partnerships in primary care to illustrate ways of managing
the dilemmas and paradoxes of health service management, as well as talking
more widely about some of the generic issues involved.
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Dr. T.J. Chaussalet
University of Westminster
CSCS, Dept of Mathematics
9-18 Euston Centre
London NW1 3ET, UK
Tel: +44(0)207 911 5000 ext 4310
Fax: +44(0)207 915 5438
Email: [log in to unmask]
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