All seminars are in Room 5.06 at the University of Westminster, 9-18 Euston
Centre, London (off Drummond Street, nearest tube: Warren Street). Tea, coffee,
and biscuits will be served.
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Date: Tuesday 11 March 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Prof Gary Harrison, College of Charleston, USA
Title: Modelling Variability in Hospital Bed Occupancy
Abstract:
Deterministic models of hospital bed occupancy are valuable to understand the
occupancy distribution and the average number of beds required, but cannot show
the variability in the number of beds, which is precisely the feature that
makes planning the number of beds difficult for hospital administrators. Using
data from a hospital in Adelaide, Australia, a method is presented to estimate
release and conversion rates when the admissions are not constant and the
nature of the admission process is analyzed. Putting random admission rates
into an occupancy model, however, does not produce as much variability in the
total number of patients as in the data; it is also necessary to make the
releases and conversions random. The possibility of annual as well as weekly
patterns in the admission and release rates and implications for hospital
planning are also explored.
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Date: Monday 7 April 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Dr Adele Marshall, Queen’s University Belfast, UK
Title: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to model patient outcomes and length of
stay in hospital
Abstract: tba
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Date: Tuesday 13 May 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Dr Ruth Davies, University of Southampton, UK
Title: Using simulation for evaluating resource requirements and cost-utilities
of treatments for end-stage renal failure
Abstract: tba
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Date: Tuesday 3 June 2003, 17:00-18:00
Speaker: Prof Jim Bryant and Dr John Darwin, Sheffield Hallam University, UK
Title: Managing Dilemmas and Paradox
Abstract:
Health systems can be thought of as fuzzy collections of semi-automomous
agents, whose responses often seem arbitrary and whose actions are frequently
unexpected. The traditional approach to managing such systems has been through
the imposition of control through rules, requirements and regulations;
experience, particularly in recent years as the complexity of such systems has
increased, has demonstrated how inappropriate such an approach can be. The
novel behaviours emergent from interaction and co-evolution in complex social
systems offer fresh challenges for health service managers. In this
presentation we shall introduce and discuss some novel approaches to the
development and evaluation of relationships in health service delivery and
management. We shall describe some of our recent work relating to clinical
governance and to partnerships in primary care to illustrate ways of managing
the dilemmas and paradoxes of health service management, as well as talking
more widely about some of the generic issues involved.
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Dr. T.J. Chaussalet
University of Westminster
CSCS, Dept of Mathematics
9-18 Euston Centre
London NW1 3ET, UK
Tel: +44(0)207 911 5000 ext 4310
Fax: +44(0)207 915 5438
Email: [log in to unmask]
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