I have just received a message which contains the sentence: Projections are
not forecasts.
According to the dictionary, Projection means "an estimate of future
possibilities based on a current trend", whereas Forecast (the noun)
means "a prophecy, estimate, or prediction of a future happening or
condition"
So when I produce an estimate of the number of primary school pupils I
think we will have in Hertfordshire in 2010, is it a projection or a
forecast ?, given that it it is based on an estimated overall population
derived from a matrix method using birth rates, death rates, migration
estimates, etc., and the trend of the catchment ratio (ratio of primary age
children in the area to the number actually in schools).
Thanks for any insight into the difference between the two two terms.
Paul Garcia
Senior Property Review Officer (Demographics)
Hertfordshire County Council
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