Date : Wednesday, April 30th
Time : 6.0 pm
Place : Room 407 (Lecture Theatre A), Level 4, Boyd Orr Bdg., University
Gdns./University Av., Glasgow G12
Tea/Coffee : from 5.30 in foyer.
Title
Proof of Causality: Can Epidemiology provide it?
Speaker
SIR RICHARD DOLL, HONORARY CONSULTANT
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES UNIT, UNIVERSITY of OXFORD
Synopsis
Cause may be defined in several ways. For the present purpose a cause of
disease is distinguished from the cause and is defined as an agent that is
associated with a disease in such a way that increased exposure to it is
followed by an increased risk of the disease. Whether epidemiology alone
can provide proof that an agent is a cause in strict logic may be
questioned, but it can provide 'proof beyond reasonable doubt' that is
sufficient to justify action. The conditions required to obtain such
'proof' are discussed and examples given: namely, cigarette smoking and
lung cancer, adulterated oil and the Spanish Toxic Oil Syndrome, and
(conversely) alcohol and the prevention of vascular disease.
========================================================
Ben Torsney Phone: +44 (0)141 330 5149
Dept of Statistics Fax: +44 (0)141 330 4814
15 University Gardens Mail: [log in to unmask]
University of Glasgow http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~bent
Glasgow G12 8QW
========================================================
|