Workshop on Statistics in Volcanology

                      22nd – 26th March 2004

         Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK.



Funded by joint NERC/EPSRC Programme on
Environmental Mathematics and Statistics.



1. Theme
The general theme of the workshop is the promotion and dissemination of
contemporary statistical thinking and understanding as an aid to tackling
complex problems arising in volcanology. Areas of common interest between
the statistical and volcanological communities include:
• Numerical modelling of complex multiphase flows.
• Analysis of large data streams.
• Statistics of spatial and time series data.
• Pattern recognition.
• Analysis of uncertainties and probabilistic risk assessment.
• Relating spatial and temporal data to physical processes.
• Evaluation of expert judgements of field data for forecasting,
hazard evaluation and risk assessment.
A key objective of the workshop is for researchers and students in the
volcanological and statistical disciplines to share knowledge and common
interests and to develop future collaborations.


2. Format of Workshop
The workshop is organised around keynote lectures from leading experts on
particular themes covering state-of-the-art aspects of volcanology and
statistics. These themes will include:
• Risk analysis of volcanic eruptions and assessment of expert
opinion.
• Modelling of volcanic flow.
• Volcanic eruption precursors
• Modelling of extreme events.
• Wavelet techniques.
• Pattern recognition and spatial statistics.
• Computational techniques for complex risk models.
The keynote lectures will be interspersed with plenary discussion sessions
and focus-group sessions. Participants are also encouraged to contribute
to a poster session whose aim will be to enable detailed discussion of
contributors' own research problems, expertise and experience.


3. Keynote Speakers
Dr Willy Aspinall, Aspinall & Associates, UK.
Dr Stuart Coles, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK.
Professor Chuck Connor, Department of Geology, University of Southern
Florida, USA.
Professor Peter Green, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol,
UK.
Professor Herbert Huppert, Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of
Cambridge UK.
Dr Olivier Jacquet, COLENCO Power Engineering, Baden, Switzerland.
Dr Heidy Mader, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Oleg Melnik, Institute of Mechanics, Moscow State University, Russia.
Professor Guy Nason, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Juergen Neuberg, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, UK.
Professor Chris Newhall, Volcano Disaster Assistance Team, US Geological
Survey.
Dr Leonard Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of
Economics, UK.
Professor Steve Sparks, Department of Earth Sciences, University of
Bristol, UK.
Dr Gordon Woo, Aspinall & Associates, UK.
Professor Andy Woods, BP Institute, University of Cambridge, UK.
Professor Peter Young, Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and
Statistics, Lancaster University, UK.

4. Participation and Funding
Participation from students and postdoctoral researchers as well as
established academics is welcomed. Numbers will be limited to retain the
workshop character. This workshop is funded through the joint NERC/EPSRC
programme on Environmental Mathematics and Statistics. Funding is
available to cover participants' costs of registration, accommodation and
travel associated to the workshop. Funding will be up to 100% of costs
incurred, depending on applications received. We will notify applicants of
the amount of funding they will receive after the deadline for
applications has closed.
(Note: NERC = Natural Environment Research Council, EPSRC = Engineering
and Physical Sciences Research Council. The UK Research Councils provide
government funding to support academic research.)


5. Applications
All applications must be made via the meeting website. The deadline for
applications is 1st December 2003
We will notify applicants of the outcome of the application and level of
funding by early February 2004.


6. Websites
The general website for the Environmental Mathematics and Statistics
Workshops and Training Courses is at:
http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/icms/ems

The website for this workshop is at:
http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/icms/ems/volcano


7. Organiser Contact Details

Conference Secretary:
Ms Lisbeth Robson, Department of Mathematics, University Walk, Clifton,
Bristol, BS8 1TW, UK.
Email: [log in to unmask]
Telephone: (+44) (0) 117-928-7978
Fax (not confidential): (+44) (0) 117-928-7999

Dr Heidy M Mader, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol.
Email: [log in to unmask]

Dr Stuart G Coles, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol.
Email: [log in to unmask]