Whilst not wishing to prolong this debate beyond its natural level of
interest, I would just like to comment upon Sandy MacRae's remark:
The first statement is not incontrovertible and I, for one, do not agree
with it. Some projections are untenable as forecasts because they are
contradicted by other evidence.
I think the problem is that we are using the word forecast to mean two
different things: in my summary, I was using the dictionary definition,
which seemed to accord with some of the other replies I had received, that
a forecast needn't be based on any mathematical procedure (so not a
projection), and needn't be sensible (so the bizarre projection about teeth
would count as a forecast). But Sandy MacRae is using the word forecast to
mean something believable or sensible, so would include projections
tempered by the extra dimensions I mentioned, and other things not based on
projections. At this point I want to draw a diagram: two overlapping
circles surrounded by a big ellipse. The big ellipse is my set of
forecasts, one of the circles is the set of projections, and the other
circle is Sandy MacRae's set of forecasts.
=========
Best wishes
Paul Garcia
Senior Property Review Officer (Demographics)
25221
=====================================
Hoc fama mihi cursum sinuosum secuta nuntiat
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