But are these FT experts forecasters or projectors?
Quentin Burrell
-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of R. Allan Reese
Sent: 08 January 2003 09:59
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Gamblers' Fallacy
"Ray Thomas" <[log in to unmask]> wrote
> > There is no 'Gamblers Fallacy' here. The FT experts are part of the
real
> > world. Like it or not, 'gambling' on the stock exchange ia a major
> > component of the world's economic system.
On Tue, 7 Jan 2003, Mark Coleman wrote:
> Another interpretation of the FT experts opinions is more empirical in
> nature.
A more straightforward interpretation is that the stock market is not in
general a stable random process. Actors within the system can affect it
(within limits, cf Nick Leason). The experts quoted are (a) hoping to
stimulate trade in a depressed market, and (b) hoping to talk-up the
market or try to counter a positive-feedback of decline.
R. Allan Reese Email: [log in to unmask]
Associate Manager GRI Direct voice: +44 1482 466845
Graduate School Voice messages: +44 1482 466844
Hull University, Hull HU6 7RX, UK. Fax: +44 1482 466436
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The management here were SO impressed with W Edward Deming's "Out of
the crisis" that they are working flat out to create THE BEST crisis;
then they can start implementing the 13 obligations.
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