ENVIRONMENTAL MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS WORKSHOP

Uncertainty, complexity, and predictive reliability of 
environmental/biological models

University of Nottingham

April 14-16, 2004

http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/icms/ems/modelling/

Aims

The theme of the workshop is the statistical challenges posed by estimating 
uncertainty and predictive reliability of environmental and biological models.  
We aim to:
* Increase the awareness of relevant techniques and methods in the 
environmental/biological modelling community.  
* Inform and challenge the statistical community with the issues raised by such 
models.

Themes

The following themes for the workshop are anticipated:
* Frameworks for model selection 
* Uncertainty estimation for mechanistic models
* Uncertainty reduction
* Model order reduction, model simplification
* Experimental design to constrain uncertainty
* Spatial and Spatio-temporal models

Workshop Structure
The workshop will utilise a combination of plenary and focussed small 
group sessions based around the above themes.  Plenary presentations 
will include those by relevant keynote speakers (see below).  

Venue/Accommodation
The workshop will be held in Lenton and Wortley Hall (on the University 
Park Campus) where accommodation will also be provided.
Participants are required to pay their own travel costs to Nottingham, 
but all other costs of the workshop (including accommodation and meals) 
will be met by the Environmental Mathematics and Statistics programme.


Keynote Participants

Prof. Clive Anderson*
University of Sheffield
  Modelling and inference, extreme 
                                                values and environmental issues

Prof. Keith Beven*
   University of Lancaster
  Modelling flow and transport 
                                                processes, uncertainty estimation for 
                                                environmental models

Dr Peter Craig*
      University of Durham
     Bayesian, spatial and environmental 
                                                statistics, statistical computing environments

Prof. John Crawford
  University of Abertay 
   Theoretical biology and the 
                                                mathematical modelling of non-linear 
                                                biological systems

Prof. Noel Cressie
   Ohio State University
    Statistical modelling of spatio-
                                                temporal data

Dr Neil Crout*
       University of Nottingham
 Spatial and dynamic modelling of 
                                                environmental contaminants 

Prof. Ian Dryden*
    University of Nottingham
 Spatial statistics, spatial-temporal 
                                                models, shape analysis, image analysis

Prof. Charles Godfray*
Imperial College
        Theoretical and experimental 
                                                population biology

Prof. Michael Goldstein
University of Durham
   Bayesian statistics

Prof. Brian Grenfell
 University of Cambridge 
 Population biology of human and 
                                                animal parasites

Prof. Tony O'Hagan
   University of Sheffield
  Bayesian statistics

Prof. George Hornberger
University of Virginia
 Hydrology, hydrological modelling

Dr Luigi Monte
   ENEA (Institute for New 
     Modelling transport of 
                  Technology, Energy and 
      environmental contaminants
                  Environment), Italy

Prof. Roger Payne
  Rothamsted Research
        Non-linear models, experimental 
                                                design

Dr Leonard Smith
   University of Oxford
       Dynamics of non-linear systems, 
                                                robust methods, optimal prediction of 
                                                chaotic and stochastic systems.

Prof. Andy Wood*
  University of Nottingham
    Bootstrap methods, simulation 
                                                techniques, environmental statistics

Prof. Peter Young
 University of Lancaster
     Data based mechanistic modelling

*Member of the organising committee

Further Information

More detailed information on the workshop can be found at 

http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/icms/ems/modelling/

Registration

To register for the workshop complete the registration form on the workshop 
web-site 
(including an abstract to indicate your areas of interest by 
16th January 2004)

Funding

The workshop is funded by NERC-EPSRC Environmental Mathematics and Statistics 
Programme.  This support is gratefully acknowledged.


Contact: 

Dr Neil Crout, Division of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, 
School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham
University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, 
Tel No. +44 (0) 115 9516253, Fax No. +44 (0) 115 9513251, 
Email: [log in to unmask]