Johnson's Russia List
#6596
11 December 2002
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A CDI Project
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#18
BBC Monitoring
Elections changed little in Russia's second biggest city
Source: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Moscow, in Russian 10 Dec 02

Russian analysts are divided over the results of local elections in St
Petersburg. Some see it as a major defeat of city governor Vladimir
Yakovlev and victory of the pro-Moscow party, others believe that the
balance of power within the local parliament will remain virtually
unchanged. The following is the text of the article by Yuriy Zvyagin
headlined "Petersburg Votes With Feet. Voter Turnout Determines Political
Alignment in Northern Capital" published by Russian government daily
Rossiyskaya gazeta on 10 December. Subheadings inserted editorially:

Setback for governor

So, the St Petersburg Legislative Assembly elections have taken place. By
Sunday [8 December] evening it had been possible to clear the 20-per cent
barrier established by new legislation. The voter turnout was 29.4 per
cent. Contrary to expectations, it was also possible to obtain the
necessary number of voters in all districts.

The voting results: Thirty-eight of the second intake's 50 deputies
retained their seats. This is entirely in keeping with political
scientists' forecasts. But if we are talking about how the elections that
took place affected the distribution of seats in the legislative assembly
among various political forces, here observers' opinions differ.

For example, State Duma Deputy Igor Artemyev, former St Petersburg deputy
governor and an implacable opponent of the current administration, believes
that St Petersburg will have a weak parliament which will "decide little"
since "corporate interest in it will be exchanged for a deputy's seat." At
the same time Andrey Likhachev, head of [local energy provider] Lenenergo
and a local Union of Right Forces leader, talks of a convincing victory for
the right-wingers and consequently of a radical change in the situation
that enables the legislative assembly to seize power from the Smolnyy [St
Petersburg City Hall]. Some specialists are saying that as a result of
these elections the number of governor [Vladimir] Yakovlev's supporters in
the city's parliament has decreased and consequently that there is
virtually no chance left of amending the City Charter in respect of
allowing the current head to run for a third term.

Good news for senator

At the same time, in their opinion current Federation Council Chairman
Sergey Mironov does not have to worry unduly about his future.

While before the elections there was still talk about whether he would
remain St Petersburg parliament's representative in the upper chamber of
the Federal Assembly, now there are generally no doubts about this. These
conclusions are reinforced by sociologists' conclusions. According to the
data of sociological polls carried out on voting day, 50 per cent of voters
consider it correct if the new membership legislative assembly's did not
make changes to the charter and only 25 per cent support the amendment of
the city's fundamental law. At the same time 30 per cent of voters consider
it correct if parliament allowed Sergey Mironov to retain the post of St
Petersburg's representative in the Federation Council. This was reported to
the Rosbalt news agency press centre by Vladimir Vasilyev, head of a
political psychology laboratory.

Little change for the city

But far from everybody shares this viewpoint. Thus, political scientist
Yuriy Kurikalov, the legislative assembly's expert, told Rossiyskaya
Gazeta's correspondent that by and large the elections changed nothing in
the balance of forces within the city's parliament. According to him, more
often than not people with a "federal" or "gubernatorial" orientation have
been replaced by exactly the same kind of deputies. Consequently, it is
still impossible to predict the result of the battle for the third term and
Mironov's post.

The breakdown by political blocs and associations is as follows:
Union of Right Forces plus Yabloko - eight deputies;
Science, Industry, and Education - 2;
Russian Federation People's Party - 1;
Will of Petersburg - 3;
One Russia - 4;
Political Centre - 1;
Independents - 31.

"Left-wing" and "patriotic" forces increased their representation the most
substantially. The Science, Industry, and Education bloc got two deputies
in and in another district a moderate "patriot" was replaced by a more
active colleague. The bloc of Union of Right Forces and Yabloko in actual
fact gained virtually nothing from these elections. The allies got their
people into three new districts but on the other hand lost three former
seats. In all other cases old deputies were replaced by "independents."
Here political scientists note one peculiarity of the current elections -
representatives of municipal formations appeared among the "independents."
Two leaders of municipal formations got into the legislative assembly, and
several more municipal officials came second in their districts.

It is also interesting to note that the new legislative assembly will be
missing a hefty four former standing commission chairmen - for legislation;
veterans' affairs; education, culture and science; and for the system of
state power, local self-government, and the administrative-territorial
system. But it was in these districts that old deputies were replaced by
representatives of political parties and associations. Obviously, it is
here that substantial changes in the new parliament's policy are to be
expected.

If we are talking about the elections in St Petersburg as a rehearsal for
the Duma elections, then this rehearsal can be declared rather
unsuccessful. In effect nothing has actually changed in St Petersburg.

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