Johnson's Russia List
#6579
29 November 2002
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A CDI Project
www.cdi.org
#3
Russia may face huge bill to treat AIDS-World Bank
November 29, 2002
By Andrew Hurst
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia, grappling with one of the fastest rates of HIV
infection in the world, faces a huge bill it can ill afford if hundreds of
thousands develop full-blown AIDS in years to come, a World Bank economist
said.
Christof Ruehl, the World Bank's chief economist in Russia, said Friday
that although there are 220,000 registered cases of HIV infection in the
country, the real number of people who are infected with the deadly virus
could be more than a million.
"According to our estimates 800,000 to 1.2 million is roughly the range of
where it (HIV infection) is," Ruehl told Reuters.
HIV infection has spread like wildfire among Russia's large population of
narcotic drug users through needle-sharing for intravenous injection.
Russia's top AIDS specialist, Vadim Pokrovsky, earlier this week warned
that at least half a million Russians will die from AIDS by 2010 -- even
though only about 800 people have so far been diagnosed as suffering from
the disease.
A report prepared by Ruehl on the likely economic consequences of Russia's
looming AIDS crisis paints a bleak picture of an economy continuing to grow
but straining to pay for public medical treatment as the epidemic spreads.
Russia's biggest challenge will be to offer expensive anti-AIDS drugs free
to patients in a country where most people are far too poor to pay for them
out of their own pockets.
"You will see people dying in Russia on a massive scale after 2005-06 if
they don't get the drugs," said Ruehl.
"The fiscal costs will blow the budget at current retroviral treatment
prices."
Foreign anti-AIDS drug treatments sell in countries like China, which also
faces an HIV crisis, for about $10,000 a year while locally produced
cocktails sell for a few hundred dollars.
Ruehl estimated that treating the HIV-infected population at a cost of $900
per person per month would soak up more than 80 percent of Russia's current
annual federal budget. However, if treatment can be provided for only $30
per month per patient, the cost would eat up less than 2.72 percent of the
budget.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia's health service has
steadily deteriorated due to lack of funds, and the sick often pay to
receive adequate treatment.
The AIDS threat to Russia's economy is particularly acute because low
average life expectancy among men is driving down the nation's total
population by about 800,000 a year.
"This combination of high HIV transmission rates and a decreasing
population really aggravates the problem," he said.
Many African countries have suffered devastating AIDS epidemics but their
populations have continued to grow because of high birth rates, said Ruehl.
Infection rates in Russia have fallen off in recent months but Ruehl said
it would probably take another six months to determine whether infection
was really in decline or not.
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