Centre for Applied Social Surveys
Short Course
MULTILEVEL DISCRETE –
TIME EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS
Supported by the ESRC
Mac McDonald and Fiona Steele
20-22 November 2002
University of Southampton
CASS is an ESRC Resource Centre hosted by the National
Centre for Social Research, the University of Southampton and
the University of Surrey
Course Objectives:
* Provide a practical introduction to discrete-time methods
for the analysis of event histories.
* Enable participants to analyse their own event history
data using relevant software.
Course Content:
* Event histories and issues in their analysis.
* Discrete-time approach to hazard modelling.
* Data management for the analysis of event histories
using SAS.
* Modelling the time to a single event.
* Competing risks for multiple types of event.
* Multilevel models for modelling the times to recurrent
events.
* Models including unobserved heterogeneity.
The course will introduce the principles and practice of event
history analysis using discrete-time models. These models
include logit, multinomial logit and multilevel extensions of
these models. Many illustrative examples taken from the
instructors’ own research will be provided. The course will
have a strong practical emphasis, with regular computer-based
workshop sessions at which the participants will work through
examples and exercises using SAS and MLwiN. The
workshops aim to provide practical experience in the
preparation of data for a multilevel discrete-time event history
analysis, model fitting and interpretation of results.
Target Audience:
The course is aimed at researchers who need to model event
history data, especially those in the social, economic,
educational and medical sciences. A good understanding of
standard statistical methods of regression analysis and logistic
models for binary responses will be assumed. Some familiarity
with multilevel models and event history analysis would be
useful, but is not essential. Some experience with SAS and
MLwiN would be useful, but not essential. Participants are very
welcome to bring their own datasets and will have the
opportunity to speak to the instructors about their analysis.
Course Materials:
Participants will receive copies of overhead transparencies and
handouts for the computer-based workshops.
The Instructors:
Mac McDonald is a Reader in Social Statistics at the
University of Southampton. His general research interests are
in demography and social statistics. Specific research includes
multilevel models for infant and child mortality in the
developing world and discrete-time event history models with
unobserved heterogeneity. This has involved the fitting of
multilevel models using traditional methods as well as Markov
chain Monte Carlo methods. He has presented various short
courses both in the UK and abroad. He co-taught this CASS
short course on multilevel discrete-time event history analysis
with Fiona Steele in 1998.
Fiona Steele is a Research Lecturer in Statistics at the Institute
of Education, University of London. Her research interests
include multilevel modelling and event history analysis, and
their application in demography. She has taught several
courses on multilevel analysis using MLwiN and two previous
CASS courses on event history analysis.
Fee:
£400 (includes course materials, lunches and morning and
afternoon tea). Because of ESRC support, a number of bursaries
are available which reduce the fee to £85 - applicants must be
full-time students, UK academic staff or ESRC-funded
researchers.
Location:
The course will be held at the University of Southampton.
During the course participants can be contacted via the
Department of Social Statistics (Tel: 023 8059 3048, Fax: 023
8059 3846).
Duration:
The course will begin with coffee and registration at 9.30 a.m.
on Wednesday, 20th November and end at 15.30 pm on Friday,
22nd November 2002. On Friday afternoon there will be an
opportunity for participants to discuss with the instructors how
to analyse their own data.
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