Johnson's Russia List
#6239
13 May 2002

#5
Novaya Gazeta
No. 19
May 6-12, 2002
WHAT DO VODKA AND ELECTIONS HAVE IN COMMON?
Both vodka and election results are often not what they seem to be
Author: Boris Kagarlitsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
A NEW ELECTION TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED
IN INGUSHETIA: IN ORDER TO DEFEND THE VOTING RIGHTS
OF "DEAD SOULS", IT WAS NECESSARY TO PREVENT REAL
VOTERS FROM VOTING. WHILE ELECTORAL FRAUD IS KNOWN
TO BE WIDESPREAD IN RUSSIA, THE RECENT ELECTIONS IN
INGUSHETIA REALLY MARKED A NEW LOW.

     Fraud in the election process is a norm of Russian life; and,
amazingly enough, it's a guarantee of our relative freedom and
relative rights. Otherwise, no one would share power with us.
     If, God forbid, electoral fraud ever becomes technically
impossible, no elections would be held. If the free press could
somehow influence politics, it would have been shut down long
ago. But elections are held in Russia these days, and papers do
publish revealing articles, even about electoral fraud. The dogs
are allowed to bark, as long as the caravan moves on.
     Anyway, even against the generally grotesque background
of Russian politics, the election farce in Ingushetia stands out.
It is a masterpiece, which can be completely appreciated only
by real connoisseurs of the genre.
     How can the scale of electoral fraud be estimated, based on
official statistics? The method is simple and well-known; anyone
can use it. The point is that the authorities are obliged to report
voter turnout figures, which is a common practice all over the
world. The point is that voter turnout fluctuates in the course
of the day: many people come in the morning, by noon there is
a lull, and then in the final hour there's another "attendance
rush": those who were unable to vote earlier in the day come
to vote in the evening.
     However, the "second rush hour" is always less than the
first, as there is little time and a large number of people would
be physically unable to fit in the polling stations over such a
short period of time.
     This is a common statistical pattern, whether it's Britain, Fiji,
Nizhny Novgorod, or Cape Town. However, there are certain
peculiarities.
     Long before Russia started holding multi-party elections, Latin
American and African dictators discovered that during the "final
hour peak" it is possible to throw in lots of false ballot papers, or to
simply add the necessary figure to the number of people who have
already voted, and then simply falsify the returns. Observers also
discovered this. That is why voter turnout figures must be officially
announced every hour. If it's revealed that a vast number of people
voted over the last hour or two, it is clear that the results are
being forged.
     Judging by reports, this is how elections are held in Russia.
Over most of the day, people drop by the polling stations at a very
leisurely rate; while in the last five minutes crowds of voters rush
to cast their votes - sometimes up to two-thirds of the official voter
turnout.
     On Sunday afternoon, the day of the election, I used the Internet
to find out that approximately 20% of Ingushetian voters had already
voted. It was easy to predict that by the evening, 60% would have
voted, about a third of whom would be "dead souls". However, what
happened in reality exceeded all my expectations.
     The citizens of Ingushetia really did turn out to vote - and,
what is worse, kept trying to drop their votes into the ballot-box
until the very last moment. The only way for the election commissions
to get rid of them was to close the polling stations. As a result,
judging by media reports, crowds of people gathered, vainly trying to
vote. Alas, they did not understand that the election had already
taken place, and the results were calculated long before the end of
Sunday.
     In order to protect the rights of the "dead souls", the
authorities of Ingushetia had to prevent living people from entering
the polling stations - this seems to be a new election technique.
     Overall, to the great delight of the Kremlin, all went well, and
the new methods applied in the Caucasus will be similarly successful
when used on a larger scale throughout Russia.
     Especially if we take into consideration that even if state
officials and politicians are caught red-handed in the act of
electoral fraud, they invariably keep their jobs.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)

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