I suppose I mean "The Problem". The Problem I have in deciding what to
believe about public understanding of science. The Problem that is
illustrated by your finding that so many people know that they don't know
whether or not Leo Blair has received the MMR jab. They clearly care about
this. It is more important to them than understanding the evidence. The
Problem is that I think I can see why people think like this but that doesn't
mean I like it.
Lesley
>===== Original Message From "psci-com: on the public understanding of
science" <[log in to unmask]> =====
>might i be so bold as to ask what "problem" you are referring to?
>research councils hyping up results to attract publicity? scientists
>leaking information to attract publicitiy? journalists trying to
>sell newspapers?
>;)
>tammy
>
>
>Forwarded by: [log in to unmask]
>Forwarded to: [log in to unmask]
>Date forwarded: Thu, 5 Dec 2002 19:57:22 GMT0BST
>Date sent: Thu, 5 Dec 2002 19:56:22 +0000
>Send reply to: "psci-com: on the public understanding of science"
> <[log in to unmask]>
>From: Lesley Newson <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: New Poll Shows Correlation is Causation
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Date forwarded: Thu, 05 Dec 2002 19:57:29 +0000
>
>> Hi everyone,
>>
>> Sorry to clutter your mailboxes but I was sent this and just felt
>that I had
>> to share it with as many people as possible. It is an extremely
>good
>> illustration of the problem as I see it.
>>
>> Lesley
>>
>>
>> [The Happy Hour Archive]
>>
>> NEW POLL SHOWS CORRELATION IS CAUSATION
>>
>> WASHINGTON (AP) The results of a new survey conducted by pollsters
>> suggest that, contrary to common scientific wisdom, correlation
>does in
>> fact imply causation. The highly reputable source, Gallup Polls,
>Inc.,
>> surveyed 1009 Americans during the month of October and asked them,
>"Do
>> you believe correlation implies causation?" An overwhelming 64% of
>> American's answered "YES", while only 38% replied "NO". Another 8%
>were
>> undecided. This result threatens to shake the foundations of both
>the
>> scientific and mainstream community.
>>
>> "It is really a mandate from the people." commented one pundit who
>wished
>> to remain anonymous. "It says that The American People are sick
>and tired
>> of the scientific mumbo-jumbo that they keep trying to shove down
>our
>> throats, and want some clear rules about what to believe. Now that
>> correlation implies causation, not only is everything easier to
>> understand, it also shows that even Science must answer to the will
>of
>> John and Jane Q. Public."
>>
>> Others are excited because this new, important result actually
>gives
>> insight into why the result occurred in the first place. "If you
>look at
>> the numbers over the past two decades, you can see that Americans
>have
>> been placing less and less faith in the old maxim 'Correlation is
>not
>> Causation' as time progresses." explained pollster and pop media
>icon
>> Sarah Purcell. "Now, with the results of the latest poll, we are
>able to
>> determine that people's lack of belief in correlation not being
>causal has
>> caused correlation to now become causal. It is a real advance in
>the
>> field of meta-epistemology."
>>
>> This major philosophical advance is, surprisingly, looked on with
>> skepticism amongst the theological community. Rabbi Marvin Pachino
>feels
>> that the new finding will not affect the plight of theists around
>the
>> world. "You see, those who hold a deep religious belief have a
>thing
>> called faith, and with faith all things are possible. We still
>fervently
>> believe, albeit contrary to strong evidence, that correlation does
>not
>> imply causation. Our steadfast and determined faith has guided us
>through
>> thousands of years of trials and tribulations, and so we will
>weather this
>> storm and survive, as we have survived before."
>>
>> Joining the theologists in their skepticism are the philosophers.
>"It's
>> really the chicken and the egg problem. Back when we had to worry
>about
>> causation, we could debate which came first. Now that correlation
>IS
>> causation, I'm pretty much out of work." philosopher-king Jesse
>"The Mind"
>> Ventura told reporters. "I've spent the last fifteen years in a
>heated
>> philosophical debate about epistemics, and then all of the sudden
>Gallup
>> comes along and says, "Average household consumption of peanut
>butter is
>> up, people prefer red to blue, and...by the way, CORRELATION IS
>CAUSATION.
>> Do you know what this means? This means that good looks actually
>make you
>> smarter! This means that Katie Couric makes the sun come up in the
>> morning! This means that Bill Gates was right and the Y2K bug is
>> Gregory's fault." Ventura was referring to Pope Gregory XIII, the
>16th
>> century pontiff who introduced the "Gregorian Calendar" we use
>today, and
>> who we now know is to blame for the year 2000.
>>
>> The scientific community is deeply divided on this matter. "It
>sure makes
>> my job a lot easier." confided neuroscientist Thad Polk. "Those
>who
>> criticize my work always point out that, although highly
>correlated,
>> cerebral blood flow is not 'thought'. Now that we know correlation
>IS
>> causal, I can solve that pesky mind-body problem and conclude that
>> thinking is merely the dynamic movement of blood within cerebral
>tissue.
>> This is going to make getting tenure a piece of cake!"
>>
>> Anti-correlationist Travis Seymour is more cynical. "What about
>all the
>> previous correlational results? Do they get grandfathered in?
>Like, the
>> old stock market/hemline Pearson's rho is about 0.85. Does this
>mean
>> dress lengths actually dictated the stock market, even though they
>did it
>> at a time when correlation did not imply causation? And what about
>> negative and marginally significant correlations? These questions
>must be
>> answered before the scientific community will accept the results of
>the
>> poll wholeheartedly. More research is definitely needed."
>>
>> Whether one welcomes the news or sheds a tear at the loss of the
>ages-old
>> maxim that hoped to eternally separate the highly correlated from
>the
>> causal, one must admit that the new logic is here and it's here to
>stay.
>> Here to stay, of course, until next October, when Gallup, Inc.
>plans on
>> administering the poll again. But chances are, once Americans
>begin
>> seeing the entrepeneurial and market opportunities associated with
>this
>> major philosophical advance, there will be no returning to the
>darker age
>> when causal relationships were much more difficult to detect.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> [The Happy Hour Archive]
>>
>>
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>
>
>Tammy Speers
>Research Associate
>Tom Hopkinson Media Research Centre
>School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies
>Cardiff University
>Bute Building
>King Edward VII Ave
>Cardiff
>Wales, UK
>CF11 3NB
>Tel: 029 2087 4570
>Fax: 029 2023 8832
>
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