This should have been announced in the latest OR Newsletter, but
was unfortunately omitted.
Southern OR Group seminar - all welcome. Thursday May 30, 2.15
pm. Statistics Department, 1 South Parks Road, Oxford.
Short-term forecasting in industry: Getting managers to use
formulae as well as their heads
Paul Goodwin (University of Bath).
Short-term forecasts play a key role in the management of the
supply chain. However, despite significant advances in quantitative
forecasting methods over the past forty years, most forecasts in
industry are based either wholly, or predominantly, on
management judgement. Research suggests that, while
judgement can play a useful role in forecasting, it is subject to a
number of biases and, in many situations, forecast accuracy
would improve if there were a greater emphasis on quantitative
methods. This talk will look at methods that are designed to allow
judgmental forecasts and those based on quantitative methods to
be integrated appropriately. The methods will be evaluated in the
light of the constraints that apply in most industrial and
commercial environments.
Contact Tony Lewis 01865 485967
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Dr SC Brailsford
School of Management
University of Southampton
Southampton S017 1BJ
Tel: +44 (0)23 8059 3567
Fax: +44 (0)23 8059 3844
e-mail: [log in to unmask]
http://www.soton.ac.uk/~scb
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