In the Met Office, United Kingdom, we have done considerable work in this
area. We have a course for forecasters on how we generate probabilities and
why they are important in forecasting. There are significant aspects for
communicating and interpreting them for end users included. We have also
presented our methods to a forecaster training workshop at NCEP in
Washington DC to help the Americans in setting up their training.
There are some recent papers in Met Apps. These are mostly about ensemble
probabilities and how we use them in forecasting, rather than the
communication of them. However the 3rd paper (by Ken Myle) may be of
interest as this is about how users can tailor their decision-making based
on probability forecasts.
References are:
Legg, T.P., Mylne, K.R. and Woolcock (2002) The Use of Medium-Range
Ensembles at the Met Office. I: PREVIN - a system for the production of
probabilistic forecast information from the ECMWF EPS Meteorol. Appl. 9
255-272.
Young,M.V. and Carroll E.B., (2002) The Use of Medium-Range Ensembles at the
Met Office. II: Applications for medium-range forecasting Meteorol. Appl. 9
273-288.
Mylne,K.R., 2002 Decision-Making from Probability Forecasts using
Calculations of Forecast Value", Meteorol. Appl. 9 307-315.
Regards
Steve Palmer
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Stephen G. Palmer
Technical Co-ordination Manager
Room G24c Email: [log in to unmask]
Met Office Tel: +44 (0)1344 856915
London Road Fax: +44 (0)1344 854543
Bracknell Mob: +44 (0)7771 808531
Berkshire RG12 2SZ http://www.metoffice.com
United Kingdom
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Handmer [SMTP:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Monday, December 16, 2002 1:06 AM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Public understanding of probability
>
> USING PROBABILITIES IN WEATHER WARNINGS
>
> We are undertaking research into weather warnings and forecasts, and are
> interested in any research on the use of probabilities for communicating
> uncertainty to non-specialists.
>
> We have had limited success in finding relevant material, and would be
> very grateful if list members could point us in the right direction.
>
> Many thanks,
> John Handmer and Beth Proudley
> Centre for Risk and Community Safety
> RMIT University
> Melbourne
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >>> [log in to unmask] 12/05/02 10:43pm >>>
> New research from the development arena offers insights into the ways that
> research does, or does not, influence policy and practice in operational
> agencies. Those who are fighting to get disaster preparedness and
> mitigation higher on the policymakers' and practitioners' agendas may find
> it useful. Unsurprisingly, you will find that effective communication
> plays an important role.
>
> You can obtain the research report from the excellent id21 website:
> SUMMARY http://www.id21.org/id21-info/impact/summary.pdf
> FULL REPORT http://www.id21.org/id21-info/impact/report.pdf
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