Hello:
I have an article accepted for publication is the Journal of Natural
Hazards. This article uses statistical methods to compute conditional
probalilites and these are then used with the costs of of a particular
natural hazard to claculated expected costs of various hazards. The
titleand abstract follow below:
Title:
FORECASTING THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN CANADA AS
A GUIDE FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
Author and holder of copyright:
Mohammed H.I. Dore
Address for Correspondence:
Climate Change Laboratory,
Department of Economics
Brock University
St Catharines, ON
Canada L2S 3A1
Email:[log in to unmask]
Abstract:
A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple
"return period" calculations, no apparent research seems to have made
systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada
over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main
characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a
methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast
conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast
probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of
each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind
of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key
results of this methodology is that Hydrometeorological disasters are
increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for
preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms.
At 12:05 PM 12/16/02 +1100, John Handmer wrote:
>USING PROBABILITIES IN WEATHER WARNINGS
>
>We are undertaking research into weather warnings and forecasts, and are
interested in any research on the use of probabilities for communicating
uncertainty to non-specialists.
>
>We have had limited success in finding relevant material, and would be
very grateful if list members could point us in the right direction.
>
>Many thanks,
>John Handmer and Beth Proudley
>Centre for Risk and Community Safety
>RMIT University
>Melbourne
>
>
>
>
>
>
>>>> [log in to unmask] 12/05/02 10:43pm >>>
>New research from the development arena offers insights into the ways that
>research does, or does not, influence policy and practice in operational
>agencies. Those who are fighting to get disaster preparedness and
>mitigation higher on the policymakers' and practitioners' agendas may find
>it useful. Unsurprisingly, you will find that effective communication
>plays an important role.
>
>You can obtain the research report from the excellent id21 website:
>SUMMARY http://www.id21.org/id21-info/impact/summary.pdf
>FULL REPORT http://www.id21.org/id21-info/impact/report.pdf
>
>
Mohammed H.I. Dore, D. Phil (Oxon)
Climate Change Laboratory
Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
Brock University, St Catharines, ONT Canada L2S 3A1
Tel (905) 688 5550, ext 3578; Fax (905) 688 6388
E-Mails: [log in to unmask]
[log in to unmask]
WEB SITE:
http://spartan.ac.BrockU.CA/~dore
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