A reader has asked me to publicise the following to any of your readers who
might be interested:

Forecasting demand, determining capacity & contracting to meet national
targets.

26th February (London) and 5th March (Manchester)

Dr Rod Jones has been working as Statistical Advisor to the Thames Valley
Health Authority and the Hertfordshire Strategic Review to quantify bed
requirements, capacity gaps and levels of activity required to guarantee
achieving national access and emergency care targets. He has developed a
comprehensive range of new techniques informed by the principles of
randomness and variation to support these calculations including the use of
queuing theory, computer simulation, and forecasting tools which help to
underpin the LDP process. The natural level of variation associated with
healthcare demand is used to specify contract tolerances, bed pool sizes,
etc. Attendance at this seminar will equip you with a far greater
understanding of the planning methods required to deliver the national
targets.
	
Have you ever wondered why?

        *       Healthcare demand can be so variable
        *       Comparison with last years numbers can be so very misleading
        *       The only effective way to manage a waiting list is to use a
control chart
        *       Different sized bed pools need to run at different occupancy
levels
        *       Financial risk in healthcare contracting is extremely high
        *       The tolerance on a contract must be set using actuarial
methods
        *       Meeting demand is more difficult for outpatients than
inpatients 
        *       Overcapacity  leads to the lowest overall cost


About the speaker

Dr Rod Jones has a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering and an advanced diploma in
management accounting from the Chartered Institute of Management
Accountants. He has over 10 years experience in healthcare both as a senior
manager and as an independent consultant with Healthcare Analysis &
Forecasting. Many thousands of hours of research into healthcare resource
allocation has led to the development of new methods for sizing hospitals
and bed pools, forecasting healthcare demand and understanding resource
allocation problems. He is currently Statistical Advisor to the Thames
Valley Strategic Health Authority.

Seminar Fees

Cost per person for NHS organisations is £360 + VAT = £423 and for the
private sector is £480 + VAT = £564. The fee is non-refundable and includes
refreshments, lunch, a full set of overheads and documentation relevant to
the seminar. In the event of non-attendance course material will be sent by
post.
	
On-site Seminars & Consultancy

For those who would like to train their entire management team an on-site
seminar can be arranged as can consultancy. Details can be obtained from
[log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]> or via mobile
on 07890 640399

Registration Details

Name:....................................  Job Title:
....................................

Organisation:
............................................................................

Address:
............................................................................
......
          
 
............................................................................
......

                ...................................................
Postcode: ..................

Telephone: .........................  Email:
............................................

Special dietary requirements:
.........................................................

London (26th February 2003)  5 or Manchester (5th March 2003)  5 

Please find enclosed a cheque for £.................... made payable to
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting