Joint APERU/RSS Highland Local Group Meeting:
Statistical Methods in Populatiation Ecology
Speakers:
John Durban (Univ. of Aberdeen):
Bayesian models and model selection for marine mammal population
assessment
Steve Buckland (Univ. of St. Andrews):
Formulating models for population dynamics
Venue: Zoology Lecture Theatre, Zoology Building, Aberdeen University
(see http://www.abdn.ac.uk/central/vcampus/ for directions)
Time: 3.15 - 6pm on Weds, 23rd October
Timetable
3.15 John Durban
4.25 tea / coffee + biscuits
4.45 Steve Buckland
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Bayesian models and model selection for marine mammal population
assessment
John Durban (University of Aberdeen)
Effective management of marine mammal populations requires interaction
with data from long-term monitoring programs. However, these data are
generally sparse, requiring alternative techniques for inference about
abundance and trends. A Bayesian approach will be presented for
modelling photographic mark-recapture data. Issues to be addressed
include estimating full posterior probability distributions for
abundance estimates, and reducing uncertainty about abundance trends by
the joint modelling of repeated estimates.
Formulating models for population dynamics
Steve Buckland, Ken Newman, Len Thomas and John Harwood (University of
St. Andrews)
A general structure is proposed for formulating models for population
dynamics. The structure allows complex models to be constructed using
simple building blocks. These building blocks each represent a single
process, such as survival, birth, assignment of gender or genotype to
new-born animals, and movement. The rates corresponding to each process
may be functions of covariates, allowing effects such as density
dependence, predator-prey relationships, competition and habitat
management to be incorporated. Inference proceeds using state-space
models together with computer-intensive Bayesian methods. The methods
are illustrated using a metapopulation of grey seals, for which a long,
but incomplete, multivariate time-series of seal pup counts at the major
UK colonies is available.
Claus Mayer,
Secretary, Highlands Local Group
(wepage:
http://www.maths.abdn.ac.uk/maths/department/rss/highlands.html)
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Claus-D. Mayer | http://www.bioss.ac.uk
Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland | email: [log in to unmask]
Rowett Research Institute | Telephone: +44 (0) 1224 716652
Aberdeen AB21 9SB, Scotland, UK. | Fax: +44 (0) 1224 716608
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