Next Wednesday's LJDM seminar is being hosted as part of
the LSE's OR Dept seminar series, hence will be at LSE
rather than UCL. Details are given below.
David Hardman
-----------------------------------------------------------------
LSE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT: RESEARCH SEMINAR
Wednesday November 28, 2001, 5.00pm - 6.00pm
Room S78, St Clement's building: see
http://www.lse.ac.uk/School/maps/map1.htm and
http://www.lse.ac.uk/School/maps/map3.htm
"Navigating an Uncertain World: An Experimental Investigation of Mental
Models and Strategic Choice"
John Maule, University of Leeds
The presentation provides a selective summary of a body of research on
cognition in strategic decision making. Central to the approach is the
crucial role played by a strategist's mental model in determining judgement
and choice. A model of strategic decision making is presented that focuses
on individual cognitive processes, arguing that these can be divided into
two types - type 1 or heuristic processing and type 2 or elaborative
processing. This model is used to generate predictions that are tested in a
number of experiments on judgement and decision making in relatively complex
strategic situations. The first experiment to be reported compares two
methods for capturing participants' mental models based on cognitive
mapping, and discusses some of the factors that need to be taken into
account when choosing between these methods. In the second experiment time
pressure is used as a means of manipulating the proportions of type1 and
type 2 processing. The effects of this on participants' mental models and
choice behaviour are discussed. In the third experiment we consider the
extent to which cognitive mapping affects choice behaviour, showing that if
this activity occurs prior to choice it can eliminate the framing bias.
*( Refreshments after the seminar in the Operational Research Department ) *
Dr Peter Sozou
Department of Operational Research
London School of Economics
Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE
tel: 020 7955-6234(direct) / 7955-7653(admin)
fax: 020 7955-6885 email: [log in to unmask]
|