It is now clear that the air strikes mounted against the Afghanistan can have, at
best, a very limited impact. To crush the Taliban ground forces are indispensable.
The Northen Alliance cannot be relied upon to effectively crush the Taliban on the
ground. Even with air support from Washington their effectively is questionable. It
is quite likely that the Taliban intends to adopt a defensive strategy. This means
retreating to the hills. Under these conditions there is little chance of their being
crushed without the deployment of masses of Allied troops in the mountains. Under
these conditions there is the grave danger of a fate similar to Soviet forces
awaiting them. The role of Pakistan, China and Iran in this regard may further
complicate the picture for the Allies.
If this deployment leads to a growing number of body bags being sent home domestic
conditions may change too. Already there has been relatively sizable anti-war
protests mounted within the US. These protests could grow as the bodies return. Under
such conditions, and the uncertainty concerning economic conditions, a
radicalisation process among the American working class may develop leading to the
increasing liklihood of growing domestic instability.
The safest approach for Washington is the continous pounding of Afghanistan from the
air both in the mountains on the plains. This carpet bombing might eventually create
conditions that would allow the deployment of ground troops. However the success of
such a campaign may lead to growing hostility within Pakistan and elsewhere. Russia,
China and Iran may take this opportunity to weaken the coalition and especially
Washington and London.
The already difficult conditions within the Arab and Islamic world generally may
further progress entailing the growing radicalisation of the impoverished and highly
oppressed Muslim masses. The outcome is imponderable. A whole new configuration
within these regions that may involve the emergence of more left wing movements.
Washington's strategy, rather than enhancing its postion, may result in the reverse.
If bin Laden was responsible for the recent terrorist attack in the US then the
present response by the US government may have been anticipated by Taliban and he.
This may, in many ways, be what they may be prepared for.
Regards
Karl Carlile (Communist Global Group)
Be free to join our communism mailing list
at http://homepage.eircom.net/~kampf/
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