The Statistical Analysis of Weather and Climate
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A meeting organised by the General Applications Section

Tuesday 13th November 2001, 5.15pm (Tea: 4.45pm)
RSS, Errol Street, London

DAVID STEPHENSON (University of Reading)

Does the weather god play dice ?

Synopsis: Weather can be considered as a complex stochastic process that
affects the lives of many people. The mean state of the weather can be
summarised using weather statistics over a given period that define the
climate. Due to the desire to better understand climate variations and
likely future climate change, there has been a rapid explosion in the use
of descriptive statistical techniques in climate research. This talk will
present a summary of some of the most commonly used approaches and will
highlight some areas that could benefit from possible collaboration with
statisticians.

and

RICHARD CHANDLER (University College London)

`Simple' statistical modelling of climate variability

Synopsis: This talk aims to illustrate how standard statistical methods
may be used: firstly, to develop an understanding of complex relationships
in the climate system; secondly, to use these relationships to suggest
plausible future scenarios (for example, to quantify risks of flooding or
storm damage in a changing climate); and finally, to assess honestly the
uncertainty surrounding the conclusions of any such exercise. The focus is
primarily upon the use of Generalized Linear Models, along with standard
time series modelling techniques. An attempt will be made to address some
of the issues that arise when applying basic methods to such a complex
system.  The ideas will be illustrated with reference to a study of
windspeed patterns throughout Northern Europe.

All are welcome --- no need to book
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Dr. Karen Vines
Department of Statistics
The Open University
Walton Hall
Milton Keynes MK7 6AA

e-mail: [log in to unmask]