ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SOCIAL STATISTICS SECTION
Tuesday 20 March 2001, at 5:00pm - 6:30pm (Tea 4:30pm) at Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8OX (Barbican and Moorgate are the nearest underground stations)
A MIGRATION MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE LIKELY IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIOS
Tony Champion - University of Newcastle
Phil Rees - University of Leeds
Stewart Fotheringham - University of Newcastle
Glen Bramley - Edinburgh College of Art
Details are presented of an initial migration policy model developed for the DETR by a research team drawn from Newcastle University, Leeds University, Edinburgh College of Art and Greater London Authority. The model has been designed to enable the investigation of the first-round quantitative impacts of alternative economic and policy scenarios on gross flows of population between 100 areas in the UK. The model comprises three stages. The first stage is the model for predicting the level of out-migration from the areas for 14 subgroups (7 age groups x gender), with determinant variables calibrated by regression analysis. The second, calibrated using spatial interaction modelling, is the model for predicting the distribution of the outflows from each origin to each of the other areas. The third stage consists of the migration prediction and user interface, which allows users to input alternative values for the determinant variables in the models chosen to represent alternative conditions. The predicted migration flows are compared with the baseline predictions to assess the effect of the selected scenario, with the results viewable via tables, maps and other graphics.
The presentation will outline the thinking that went into model development, describe the characteristics of the final version of the initial policy model, display the results of some experimental scenarios. It will also discuss the steps needed for the fuller assessment of the robustness of the model and suggest ideas for further enhancement, notably in order to assist in the preparation of DETR's household projections.
ALL WELCOME.
THERE IS NO CHARGE FOR THE MEETING
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